Part of: Genoa: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Federico Arnaboldi
Genoa: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Federico Arnaboldi
This Polymarket tennis market covers the Genoa match between Juan Pablo Varillas and Federico Arnaboldi, scheduled for September 8, 2026. It resolves to the player who advances, with resolution scheduled for September 15, 2026; the market has tracked $46,953 in smart money and one signal.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $78,327.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Large contrarian tennis cluster
A $47K contrarian push toward Federico Arnaboldi stands out because it arrived during a massive volume spike, although the traders are adding to losing positions and lack a strong win-rate edge.
- Three wallets committed $47,000 to the 14% underdog during a 1,735x historical volume spike.
- The largest bettor added $31,500 to Federico at 31¢ despite already holding $94,500 bought at the same price.
- The trade is highly speculative: the market moved 23 percentage points toward Varillas, and the participating wallets have only modest or negative track records.
$46,953 on Federico Arnaboldi
Sharp bettors lead five-wallet Varillas cluster
Five wallets bought Varillas for $23.7K as volume surged 1,809x and the price jumped 25%, including two highly profitable bettors with strong historical edges.
- Five wallets committed $23,715 to Varillas, driving a 25% price jump and an extraordinary 1,809x volume spike.
- Two leading bettors have exceptional records: 99% wins with $1.16M profit and 81% wins with $390K profit.
- The cluster’s weighted entry was about 61.5¢, while Varillas now trades near 70¢, so much of the move has already occurred.
$23,715 on Juan Pablo Varillas
99% win-rate tennis sharp
A highly proven tennis trader bought Varillas at a substantial discount, with a 99% win rate and $1.16M lifetime profit.
- This bettor has won 1,216 of 1,234 resolved trades and is up $1.16M lifetime.
- They bought Varillas at 60¢ while the market has since risen to 68¢, signaling strong early conviction.
- The entry implies the trader valued Varillas well above the market’s initial price, with room to copy up to 70¢.
$3,000 on Juan Pablo Varillas | Wallet win rate: 99%
Sharp bettor scales into Varillas
A proven high-volume bettor with an 81% win rate added to an existing Varillas position at a highly favorable 41% entry before the market rose to 68%.
- This bettor wins 81% of 189 resolved trades and is up $389,561 lifetime.
- They added $2,909 at 41% to an existing $7,068 Varillas position, showing strong conviction before the price climbed to 68%.
- The market moved 19 percentage points in Varillas's favor after the trade.
$2,909 on Juan Pablo Varillas | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable serial trader catches tennis move
A highly experienced, profitable serial trader bought Federico Arnaboldi at 64% before the outcome moved to 82%, providing a meaningful but moderate copy signal.
- This bettor has won 66% of 28,656 resolved trades and is up $7.1 million lifetime.
- They bought Federico Arnaboldi at 64%, and the price has since risen to 82% after a rapid 14-point move.
- The $1,751 position is meaningful relative to the market’s $7,598 trading volume, though liquidity is ample.
$1,751 on Federico Arnaboldi | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0xa032...2090 — Outcome 11397541, $4,000 (67% win rate)
- 0x5965...935f — Outcome 11397541, $3,182 (65% win rate)
- 0x32b4...8b21 — Outcome 11397541, $2,357 (58% win rate)
- 0x7547...d158 — Outcome 11397541, $385
- 0x0fb7...0bd3 — Outcome 11397541, $172
- 0xe0ab...d374 — Outcome 11397541, $162
- 0x2c9b...10a8 — Outcome 11397541, $154
- 0x884b...c480 — Outcome 11397541, $115
- 0x1a1e...f992 — Outcome 11397541, $92
- 0x455e...f7f9 — Outcome 11397541, $77 (93% win rate)
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