Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?
This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin will trade down to $65,000 at any point in April, using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle lows as the resolution source. It resolves to Yes if any final 1-minute low during April hits $65,000 or lower; otherwise it resolves to No. The market is scheduled to resolve on May 1, 2026, after the month ends.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
16 smart money signals detected, totaling $120,851.
Categories: Bitcoin, Monthly, Hit Price, Crypto, Crypto Prices, Recurring
Notable Trades
Event-wide crypto specialist
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying a cheap tail-risk outcome across this BTC dip event, suggesting a deliberate event-wide thesis despite this specific ticket being small.
- This wallet has made over 1,100 resolved bets and is up $327k overall
- They have traded 7 markets in this same Bitcoin dip event for $310k total, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off punt
- Buying Yes at 10¢ means they only need this dip to happen more than 1 in 10 times to have value
$2,068 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable BTC threshold bettor
A proven profitable wallet with a 77% win rate bought Yes at 15¢ on a liquid BTC threshold market, making this a modest but followable sharp bet.
- This bettor wins 77% of their trades and is up about $310k across nearly 400 resolved bets
- They bought Yes at 15¢, a cheap entry that pays if Bitcoin touches $65,000 just once this month
- They are also betting across 2 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt
$4,694 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
78% winner flips bullish Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 78% win rate is making a fresh bearish Bitcoin event bet by effectively buying Yes at 10¢ after previously closing an older No position.
- This bettor has won 78% of 1,083 resolved bets and is up $342,695 lifetime
- They trade across related markets at scale: 53 events, 99 markets, and $2.27M tracked volume
- Selling No at 90¢ is the same as buying Yes at 10¢, a cheap entry after this market already moved down hard
$3,716 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Sharp cross-market trader
A highly profitable 78% win-rate trader is making a fresh cross-market bet by selling No at 88¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 12¢, after this market has fallen sharply over the week.
- This bettor wins 78% of 1,084 resolved trades and is up $342.7k lifetime
- They sold No at 88¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 12¢ for a cheap high-upside entry
- This is part of a 53-event, 99-market pattern from a serial cross-market trader with over $2.26M deployed
$5,258 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
94% win-rate BTC bettor
A very high-win-rate wallet is extending a cross-market Bitcoin thesis by buying No at 89¢ in a liquid market, making this worth watching despite only one signal.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades with 144 wins and $58.5k profit
- They are betting across 2 related Bitcoin markets, which suggests a broader event view rather than a one-off click
- Buying No at 89¢ means they see the dip-to-$65k chance as even lower than the market implies
$1,068 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
New profitable crypto whale
A 6-day-old wallet with early profits and a perfect 8-for-8 record just made a fresh $44k buy on the No side in a high-volume BTC market.
- This 6-day-old wallet is already 8 for 8 on resolved bets and up $21k.
- They just put $44.4k into No, adding to nearly $97k in flagged bets across 10 recent signals.
- They bought around 81¢ while No trades at 80¢, showing strong conviction even after the market moved their way.
$44,391 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
27-0 sharp BTC bettor
A bettor with a perfect 27-for-27 resolved record bought No at 80¢ during a volume surge in a liquid BTC market, making this a modest but credible sharp follow signal.
- This bettor has won 27 of 27 resolved trades and is up about $4.5k overall.
- They bought No at 80¢ in a BTC market that just saw volume jump 15.8x above normal.
- At 80¢, they are backing the view that Bitcoin stays above $65k through April.
$4,928 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
72% win-rate crypto bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 72% win rate is expressing a broader BTC-down thesis by selling No, which converts to buying Yes around 22¢ in a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 72% of resolved trades and is up about $319k across 646 bets
- They trade across related crypto markets often, with 350 events tracked and nearly $1.4M deployed
- Selling No at 78¢ is the same as buying Yes near 22¢, a low-cost entry on a broader Bitcoin dip thesis
$1,177 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable BTC event specialist
Surface this because a high-volume, profitable cross-market trader with 1,226 resolved bets is adding to a broad Bitcoin thesis by buying No in a liquid dip market during an event-wide volume surge.
- This bettor has 1,226 resolved trades, wins 60% of them, and is up $143k lifetime.
- They have been active across 6 related Bitcoin markets with $58k+ tracked in this event, which suggests a deliberate macro view rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 79¢ while the market sits around 78¢, backing the view that Bitcoin is unlikely to hit $65k this month.
$1,556 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable serial BTC-event trader
A high-volume serial crypto-event trader with 866 resolved bets and $251k profit is making a fresh cross-market bet on the same Bitcoin event, adding some signal despite the modest single-ticket size.
- This bettor has 866 resolved trades, a $251k profit, and wins 58% overall
- They have traded 88 markets across 44 events and put $171.8k into 7 markets tied to this same Bitcoin event
- They bought No at 81¢ after the Yes side fell sharply over the past week, backing the view that a $65k dip is unlikely this month
$2,466 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%
Top Holders
- 0xf7a1...9dce — Yes, $507,418 (55% win rate)
- 0x6e1d...d0fa — No, $463,051 (59% win rate)
- 0x7664...2e50 — No, $80,000 (67% win rate)
- 0x0fe4...01b7 — No, $55,767 (60% win rate)
- 0x8150...d03f — Yes, $55,241 (34% win rate)
- 0xd4aa...d40c — Yes, $55,123
- 0xd849...6ac7 — No, $54,662 (100% win rate)
- 0xc4fd...fe19 — No, $28,471 (83% win rate)
- 0x7b02...4991 — No, $25,488 (43% win rate)
- 0x61ee...932c — Yes, $25,198 (64% win rate)
