Part of: Portugal vs. Croatia - Halftime Result

Portugal leading at halftime?

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $37,172.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

95% winner in Yes cluster

Strong one-sided Yes buying is backed by a 95% winning wallet, serial cross-market success, and a major pre-event volume spike.

A bettor with a 95% record and $39.9K profit is buying Yes here.
Three wallets bought the same side for nearly $13K, with market volume spiking 133x above normal.
Most fills came at 39–43¢, implying about a 2.3x payout if Portugal leads at halftime.

$12,964 on Yes

81% winner buying Yes

High-hit-rate sports bettor bought Portugal halftime lead Yes at 41¢, though lifetime profit is only slightly positive.

This bettor has won 81% of 26 resolved bets, despite usually entering around 39¢.
They bought Yes at 41¢, implying roughly a 2.4x payout if Portugal leads at halftime.
The market is liquid with a tight 1¢ spread, so the entry price is easy to match.

$1,507 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable 75% sports bettor

Surface due to a proven profitable bettor with a 75% record and strong positive P&L buying Portugal halftime Yes despite only a modest alert score.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $43k lifetime.
Their wins came at average 52¢ odds, suggesting they have beaten market prices by a wide margin.
They bought Yes at 42¢, implying a better-than-market read on Portugal leading at halftime.

$1,982 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

81% winner buying halftime Yes

Sharp sports bettor with an 81% record and strong lifetime profit is buying Portugal to lead at halftime at 41¢.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $67.5K lifetime.
Their average winning entry is 43¢, close to this 41¢ buy, suggesting a familiar edge profile.
Entry at 41¢ implies they see Portugal leading at halftime as a strong mispriced opportunity.

$1,460 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp cluster buying No

Three wallets, including highly profitable serial sports traders, are aligned on No for Portugal leading at halftime with $9.2k in buys/sell-equivalent flow.

A bettor who wins 81% of resolved bets and is up $67k joined the No side.
Another large serial trader in the cluster has a 70% record and over $904k in lifetime profit.
Three wallets put $9.2k on the same side at 60¢, signaling coordinated conviction before halftime resolution.

$9,160 on No

81% winner buying halftime Yes

Sharp sports bettor with an 81% record and strong lifetime profit is buying Portugal to lead at halftime at 41¢.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $67.5K lifetime.
Their average winning entry is 43¢, close to this 41¢ buy, suggesting a familiar edge profile.
Entry at 41¢ implies they see Portugal leading at halftime as a strong mispriced opportunity.

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven sharp sports bettor

A highly profitable sports bettor with a long 79% resolved win record bought $8.6k of Yes at 43¢, making the wallet track record the key signal despite only one detection trigger.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $3.85M lifetime.
They put $8.6k on Yes at 43¢, a meaningful position in a halftime-result market.
Entry at 43¢ implies they see Portugal leading at halftime as underpriced.

$8,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

0xcf60...a6f5 — Outcome 11322009, $23,300 (81% win rate)
0x032e...2a9e — Outcome 11322009, $7,375 (70% win rate)
0xc289...ab37 — Outcome 11322009, $6,924 (95% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 65527659, $5,210
0x8b1d...1a19 — Outcome 11322009, $4,718 (75% win rate)
0x1af3...b3b4 — Outcome 11322009, $4,060 (79% win rate)
0xa7a4...e371 — Outcome 11322009, $3,907 (82% win rate)
0x442f...e7a2 — Outcome 11322009, $3,000 (62% win rate)
0x02d4...d26c — Outcome 11322009, $2,000 (53% win rate)
0x91d7...0dfc — Outcome 11322009, $1,277 (68% win rate)

Related Theses

Portugal leading at halftime?

ResolvedPortugal vs. Croatia - Halftime Result$37,172 tracked7 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming game, scheduled for July 2, 2026 If Portugal wins within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.