Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,256.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
98% winner taking NO
Surfaced because a 98% win-rate wallet with positive lifetime P&L is buying No across related Iran agreement markets despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor has won 40 of 41 resolved trades and is up $2.8K lifetime.
- They are putting $4K across 2 related markets, pointing to a clear No thesis.
- Entry at 40¢ implies they see No as underpriced versus the market’s 38¢ level.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
Profitable cross-market sharp
Sharp profitable wallet with a 75% track record and cross-market positioning is buying No on the Iran agreement/ceasefire extension market.
- This bettor has won 75% of 52 resolved trades and is up $99K lifetime.
- They have $17K positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 38¢ implies they see the market underpricing no announcement by May 25.
$1,140 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable whale moved thin market
A profitable high-volume bettor bought $3.1k of Yes in a thin geopolitical market, moving the price up about 28 percentage points.
- This bettor is up about $320k lifetime across more than $15.9M traded.
- They bought $3.1k of Yes in a market with only $7.2k total volume.
- The buys pushed Yes up roughly 28 points, from around the low 60s to 75¢.
$3,116 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Top Holders
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Yes, $16,862 (68% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $7,066 (48% win rate)
- 0x68c2...1711 — Yes, $5,942 (57% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $5,796 (70% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — No, $5,198 (47% win rate)
- 0x1eb8...0782 — No, $5,014 (98% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — No, $3,000 (75% win rate)
- 0x1393...c5ad — No, $2,662 (80% win rate)
- 0x019f...1152 — No, $1,941 (67% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $1,799 (47% win rate)
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