Part of: Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether at least one magnitude 7.0 or higher earthquake will occur anywhere on Earth by May 30, 2026 ET, resolving around May 31, 2026 UTC. PolySpotter is tracking $1,069 in smart money and 1 signal, including a recent serial-forecaster alert showing 97% conviction. Resolution is based on the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,069.

Categories: Earthquakes, Weather, Natural Disasters, Science, Culture

Notable Trades

97% serial forecaster

Surface because this is a proven serial cross-market trader with a 97% resolved win rate adding a large No bet that dwarfs recent volume in a thin earthquake market.

  • This bettor has won 97% of 1,073 resolved markets and is up $46K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 60 events with over $407K in similar cross-market activity.
  • This $1.1K No buy was about 2.5x the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.

$1,069 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Top Holders

  1. 0x4699...e03c No, $2,309 (97% win rate)
  2. 0x21d0...ce91 Yes, $1,806 (82% win rate)
  3. 0x1415...9752 No, $1,462
  4. 0x66d6...50c7 Yes, $1,000 (55% win rate)
  5. 0xabbe...8f37 No, $910 (46% win rate)
  6. 0xa676...1c22 No, $700 (44% win rate)
  7. 0x66c1...2c72 Yes, $696
  8. 0x5f21...b376 Yes, $490
  9. 0x4a2b...af20 Yes, $400 (43% win rate)
  10. 0x97ea...3363 Yes, $365 (71% win rate)

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Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?

5dAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by...?$1,069 tracked1 signalEarthquakesWeatherNatural DisastersScienceCulture
Yes
16¢
No
84¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Price History — “No
86¢
76¢
66¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?

1h ago

$1,069 on No at 82¢

82¢84¢2¢

Related Theses