Part of: Bitcoin all time high by ___?
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
This Polymarket market predicts whether Bitcoin will set a new all-time high on Binance BTC/USDT by December 31, 2026. It resolves after the deadline, with the outcome based on Binance 1-minute candle “High” prices; PolySpotter is tracking $56,103 in smart money activity and recent signals include sharp BTC thesis bettors and a profitable whale buying NO.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
12 smart money signals detected, totaling $115,795.
Categories: ATH, Bitcoin, Crypto Prices, Crypto
Notable Trades
Profitable whale buys NO
Profitable high-volume serial trader placed a $56k No bet, nearly matching market liquidity and far exceeding recent activity.
- This bettor is up about $1.06M lifetime across 1,384 resolved bets.
- The $56k No buy is almost the full listed liquidity and was flagged as far larger than recent activity.
- This wallet is a serial cross-market trader, with $3.95M traded across 139 markets.
$56,103 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
85% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with an 85% resolved win rate and positive P&L bought $3.4k of No on a quiet BTC ATH market, adding to a cross-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1,930 lifetime.
- The $3.4k buy was nearly 48x the market’s reported 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
- They have $6.1k positioned across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader BTC thesis.
$3,440 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
5-wallet coordinated YES push
Five wallets simultaneously sold No, equivalent to buying Yes, putting $5.2k into a quiet BTC ATH market with only $72 of 24h volume.
- Five wallets moved together within two minutes, effectively buying Yes at 14¢.
- Their $5.2k trade is huge versus only $72 of 24h volume, suggesting a concentrated view in a quiet market.
- Entry at 14¢ implies they see this as a long-shot BTC upside bet with about 7x payout if it hits.
$5,211 on Yes
New wallet’s $5.6k No bet
A 1-day-old wallet made a $5.6k No bet on a relatively quiet long-dated BTC ATH market, creating a high-conviction new-wallet signal despite no resolved track record.
- A 1-day-old wallet put $5.6k on No with no prior resolved history.
- The bet was over 8x the market’s recently flagged 24h volume, suggesting concentrated conviction in a quiet market.
- Entry at 84¢ is a lower-upside but high-confidence view that BTC will not make a new all-time high by the deadline.
$5,653 on No
Profitable serial trader buying YES
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader made a large low-liquidity bet effectively buying Yes at 17¢, far exceeding recent market activity.
- This bettor has a huge track record: 21,943 resolved trades, 70% winners, and $170K lifetime profit.
- The $8.3K position was over 12x the market’s entire 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet order book.
- Selling No at 83¢ is effectively buying Yes at 17¢, implying a high-upside view against the current 16–17¢ market price.
$8,272 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
85% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 85% resolved win rate is adding a No position as part of a broader Bitcoin ATH-by-date thesis.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades across 325 markets and has deployed nearly $8.0M lifetime.
- They are active across 4 related Bitcoin all-time-high markets with $47.6K positioned on the same event.
- This trade buys No at 83¢, matching a broader view that Bitcoin will not make a new all-time high by this deadline.
$2,192 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with nearly $1M in realized P&L is buying the favored No side on a long-dated BTC ATH market, though the bet size is modest relative to liquidity.
- This trader is up about $967K across 763 resolved bets.
- They have traded 88 markets across 63 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Buying No at 82¢ is a high-confidence bearish view on Bitcoin making a new all-time high by the end of 2026.
$7,868 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.
- LLM evaluation inconclusive
$1,079 | Wallet win rate: 100%
Proven cross-market grinder
A high-volume veteran with a 71% win rate across 11k+ resolved bets made a sizable buy on No in a long-dated BTC ATH market, and the trade was large relative to recent volume.
- This bettor has won 7,937 of 11,188 resolved bets and is up about $57k overall
- They trade heavily across 161 events, suggesting a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
- The $6.6k order was 170% of this market's recent 24h volume, showing real conviction at 83¢ on No
$6,642 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Sharp crypto thesis bettor
A proven profitable wallet with a 78% win rate is making a sizable cross-market crypto thesis bet here, and the trade is large relative to this market’s quiet recent volume.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades across 134 bets and is up $8.5k overall.
- They traded across 4 related markets with a $67k total crypto event position, which suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- This $7.4k order was nearly 2x the market’s 24-hour volume, showing real conviction in a relatively quiet book.
$7,443 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0xe0d3...13d7 — Yes, $132,499 (0% win rate)
- 0x8b4b...541b — No, $120,247 (85% win rate)
- 0xfea3...d227 — No, $86,729 (58% win rate)
- 0xe25e...9861 — Yes, $48,483 (88% win rate)
- 0x30aa...2bdd — Yes, $28,428
- 0x58f5...be7b — Yes, $27,191
- 0xa5bf...8763 — Yes, $25,220
- 0x64ad...ca63 — No, $20,985
- 0x83b9...c672 — Yes, $20,128
- 0xfc08...6be7 — Yes, $15,080 (89% win rate)
Related Theses
No deal by May
Covers 2 related markets
Bitcoin won’t hit records
Covers 4 related markets
