Part of: Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev
Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev
This Polymarket prediction market covers the 2026 Cincinnati Open match between Brandon Nakashima and Daniil Medvedev, scheduled for August 18, 2026. The market resolves to the player who advances, with live odds and smart money activity—including signals favoring both players—available as trading continues; it is scheduled to resolve by August 25, 2026.
17 smart money signals detected, totaling $287,168.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor amid 14-wallet Medvedev cluster
A highly profitable 91% winner exited Nakashima while 14 wallets simultaneously bought Medvedev, creating a strong coordinated directional signal despite this trader’s move being profit-taking.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and has earned $7.69M lifetime.
- Fourteen wallets bought Daniil Medvedev for a combined $71,302 as Nakashima’s price moved sharply.
- The featured trades appear to be profit-taking from a previously profitable Nakashima position, not fresh Nakashima conviction.
$10,659 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 90%
14-wallet Medvedev cluster
A 14-wallet, $71,302 one-sided cluster backed Medvedev, while this historically profitable bettor added $8,000 to an existing position, though the market has since moved to 0%.
- Fourteen wallets bought Medvedev in the same window, committing $71,302 in coordinated one-sided flow.
- This bettor has won 70% of 474 resolved trades and is up $394,834 lifetime.
- The $8,000 purchase increased an existing $40,240 Medvedev position, showing substantial conviction, although the current market price is now 0%.
$8,000 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 71%
Profitable new whale scaling into Medvedev
A highly profitable six-day-old wallet with 100% wins is repeatedly scaling into Medvedev with a $14.6K purchase despite already holding a large position.
- This six-day-old wallet is up $230,186 with a 5-0 record and has flagged 19 large bets.
- It bought $14,610 of Medvedev at an average price near 56.5%, adding to an existing $88,235 position.
- The trade dominated unusually thin recent volume, suggesting strong conviction in Medvedev at near-market odds.
$17,146 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 83%
17-wallet Nakashima surge
A large coordinated 17-wallet push toward Nakashima, supported by sharp bettor histories and a 45.4-point price surge, represents a strong directional signal despite the market now being fully resolved.
- 17 wallets committed $77,848 to Nakashima, while the market price jumped 45.4 percentage points.
- Several participating bettors have strong records, including 81% and 83% win rates with substantial lifetime profits.
- The market is already at 100%, so this is a compelling historical signal but no longer practically copyable at the displayed price.
$77,848 on Brandon Nakashima
89% winner scaling into Nakashima
A highly profitable tennis bettor with an 89% win rate and $3.2M lifetime P&L is adding $7,817 to an existing Nakashima position at 42¢.
- This bettor has won 89% of 2,448 resolved positions and is up $3.2M lifetime.
- They added $7,817 to an existing Nakashima position at 42¢, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
- The entry is below the current 44% market price in a liquid, actively traded tennis market.
$7,817 on Brandon Nakashima | Wallet win rate: 89%
89% winner backs Nakashima
A highly proven bettor with an 89% win rate and $3.2M profit placed nearly $6,000 on Nakashima amid a 56x volume spike.
- This bettor has won 89% of 2,448 resolved positions and is up $3.2 million.
- They made a fresh $5,988 bet on Nakashima at 42¢, despite the market pricing him as the 42% underdog.
- Trading volume is running 56 times above its historical average, adding support to the directional move.
$5,988 on Brandon Nakashima | Wallet win rate: 89%
91% winner adds to Medvedev
A highly profitable serial trader with a 91% win rate added to an existing Medvedev position, though the trade is not a fresh entry and offers limited price-specific evidence.
- This bettor has won 91% of 334 resolved trades and is up nearly $988,000.
- The wallet has traded across 517 markets and 414 events, indicating extensive repeat experience rather than a one-off bet.
- The $3,000 purchase adds to an existing $43,254 Medvedev position, showing continued conviction but reducing the freshness of the signal.
$3,000 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 91%
Elite serial bettor backs Medvedev
A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate and substantial edge is backing Medvedev at the market price.
- This bettor wins 83% of 1,382 resolved positions and is up about $2.0 million.
- The trader has found a 32-point edge over average implied odds across 147 events.
- A fresh $1,265 position backs Daniil Medvedev at 56%, matching the current market consensus.
$1,265 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable new whale scaling into Medvedev
A highly profitable six-day-old wallet with 100% wins is repeatedly scaling into Medvedev with a $14.6K purchase despite already holding a large position.
- This six-day-old wallet is up $230,186 with a 5-0 record and has flagged 19 large bets.
- It bought $14,610 of Medvedev at an average price near 56.5%, adding to an existing $88,235 position.
- The trade dominated unusually thin recent volume, suggesting strong conviction in Medvedev at near-market odds.
$4,000 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable new whale adds to Medvedev
A highly profitable six-day-old wallet with a 100% record is adding $30,000 to an existing Medvedev position at roughly 55¢.
- This six-day-old bettor is up $230,186 and has won all 5 resolved bets.
- The wallet is scaling into Medvedev with $30,000 after already investing $88,235 in the position.
- The trades were concentrated around 54–56¢ while Medvedev is priced near 56%, indicating continued conviction rather than profit-taking.
$20,000 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0xb2d2...3910 — Outcome 94032846, $85,418 (100% win rate)
- 0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 94032846, $84,769 (65% win rate)
- 0xb38a...3293 — Outcome 94032846, $67,279 (84% win rate)
- 0xf559...f462 — Outcome 94032846, $43,254 (91% win rate)
- 0xaa77...15a5 — Outcome 94032846, $40,240 (71% win rate)
- 0xca97...49f6 — Outcome 94032846, $37,546 (83% win rate)
- 0xcc5c...1498 — Outcome 94032846, $30,000 (67% win rate)
- 0xf958...db13 — Outcome 94032846, $22,000 (47% win rate)
- 0x5901...63a2 — Outcome 94032846, $20,843 (90% win rate)
- 0x5ba6...0f07 — Outcome 94032846, $20,000 (40% win rate)
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