Part of: Cincinnati Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Cincinnati Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
This Polymarket prediction market covers the Cincinnati Open match between Frances Tiafoe and Felix Auger-Aliassime, scheduled for August 19, 2026. It resolves to the player who advances, with $2,055 in tracked smart money and one recorded signal; the market’s listed resolution date is August 27, 2026.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $45,998.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Serial trader caught Felix drop
A highly active bettor with 579 resolved trades sold Felix at 53%, and the market has since moved to 45%, while an unusually large volume spike supports the directional signal.
- This bettor has resolved 579 trades with a 75% win rate and $375,545 in lifetime profit.
- They sold Felix Auger-Aliassime at 53%, and Felix has since fallen to about 45%.
- Trading volume was 79.7 times its historical average, adding support to the move toward Frances Tiafoe.
$2,055 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 74%
Sharp bettor scaling into Tiafoe
A highly profitable bettor with a 90% win rate and substantial proven edge is adding to a Tiafoe position amid a major volume spike and coordinated buying.
- This bettor has won 149 of 166 resolved positions, with $279,728 in lifetime profit and a 49% average entry price.
- They added $11,070 to Tiafoe at 35¢ while already holding a $32,026 position, signaling increased conviction.
- Three wallets bought Tiafoe together for $15,564 as market volume surged to nearly 180 times its historical average.
$11,070 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 90%
Sharp bettor leads Felix cluster
A highly profitable bettor with an 85% win rate and $6.0M lifetime profit placed a concentrated $33,500 bet on Felix alongside two other wallets during a major volume spike.
- This bettor wins 85% of 476 resolved positions and is up nearly $6.0M lifetime.
- Three wallets committed $37,315 to Felix, including a $33,500 bet at 67¢.
- Trading volume was 144 times its historical average, adding support to the coordinated position.
$14,581 on Felix Auger-Aliassime
Sharp wallets scaling into Tiafoe
Four wallets concentrated $10.9K on Tiafoe, including a 93% winner and an 80% bettor with a substantial edge, while several wallets are adding to existing positions.
- Four wallets committed $10,882 to Tiafoe at 34–35¢ despite the market pricing him at only 34%.
- One bettor wins 93% of 117 resolved trades and is up $128,207; another wins 80% across 1,103 trades with a 20% edge over entry odds.
- Three wallets are adding to existing Tiafoe positions, including one with $17,378 already invested, signaling sustained conviction.
$10,882 on Frances Tiafoe
93% winner scaling into Tiafoe
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate and substantial proven edge is adding to an existing underdog position at 34¢.
- This bettor has won 93% of 115 resolved positions and is up $124,774.
- They are adding $2,359 to an existing Tiafoe position at 34¢, reinforcing conviction in the underdog.
- The entry price implies the bettor sees Tiafoe as materially more likely than the market's 34% estimate.
$3,550 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 92%
93% winner scaling into Tiafoe
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate and substantial proven edge is adding to an existing underdog position at 34¢.
- This bettor has won 93% of 115 resolved positions and is up $124,774.
- They are adding $2,359 to an existing Tiafoe position at 34¢, reinforcing conviction in the underdog.
- The entry price implies the bettor sees Tiafoe as materially more likely than the market's 34% estimate.
$2,359 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 92%
Proven sharp backs Tiafoe underdog
A highly profitable, extensively proven bettor is taking a large position on the 34% underdog in a thin tennis market.
- This bettor wins 80% of 1,102 resolved trades and is up $606,257 lifetime.
- The $1,500 wager is more than twice the market’s recent 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in Tiafoe at 34¢.
- The wallet has traded across 306 events and 315 markets, providing substantial evidence beyond a single lucky bet.
$1,500 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0xdb85...152f — Outcome 85377374, $50,000 (85% win rate)
- 0x45e4...7e20 — Outcome 85377374, $25,244 (52% win rate)
- 0xaa77...15a5 — Outcome 85377374, $16,231 (71% win rate)
- 0x26b4...b8a9 — Outcome 85377374, $13,259 (60% win rate)
- 0x2c33...0563 — Outcome 85377374, $8,161 (60% win rate)
- 0x6b97...8d30 — Outcome 85377374, $6,819 (86% win rate)
- 0xafe6...8192 — Outcome 85377374, $6,540 (83% win rate)
- 0x081e...f76e — Outcome 85377374, $5,573 (93% win rate)
- 0xc3c3...eec8 — Outcome 85377374, $5,000 (99% win rate)
- 0xcf73...0215 — Outcome 85377374, $4,461 (58% win rate)
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