Part of: Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs
This prediction market covers the Counter-Strike 2 best-of-three quarterfinal between MOUZ and Aurora Gaming at the PGL Astana Playoffs, scheduled for May 15, 2026. It resolves to the team that wins the match, with $1,226 in smart money tracked and 1 smart money signal currently flagged on PolySpotter.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between MOUZ and Aurora Gaming in the PGL Astana Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 15 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Aurora Gaming. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against MOUZ. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,753.
Categories: Esports, counter strike 2, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
Profitable serial esports bettor
Serial cross-market esports bettor with a positive 188-bet track record is taking Aurora at 43c, but the signal is moderate rather than exceptional.
- This bettor has a long record: 188 resolved bets, 57% winners, and about $25.3K profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 29 events and $38.6K in similar tracked positioning.
- Buying Aurora at 43¢ goes against MOUZ as the slight favorite, implying a roughly 2.3x payout if correct.
$1,226 on Aurora Gaming | Wallet win rate: 57%
Profitable serial esports bettor
Surfaced because this is a proven serial cross-market sports/esports bettor with a large resolved sample, positive lifetime P&L, and a fresh MOUZ buy.
- This bettor has won 65% of 289 resolved trades and is up $17.3K lifetime.
- They have traded across 41 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market betting process rather than a one-off punt.
- Entry at 57¢ implies they see MOUZ as mispriced despite a fairly liquid market.
$1,528 on MOUZ | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0xc49f...9e05 — MOUZ, $7,955 (96% win rate)
- 0xbf5e...4189 — MOUZ, $7,588 (57% win rate)
- 0x2200...2640 — Aurora Gaming, $6,293
- 0xce80...08ed — MOUZ, $6,040 (66% win rate)
- 0x7645...3117 — Aurora Gaming, $6,000 (50% win rate)
- 0xdb63...a71d — MOUZ, $5,196 (63% win rate)
- 0x182d...73e9 — Aurora Gaming, $5,061 (39% win rate)
- 0xf559...f462 — Aurora Gaming, $4,651 (89% win rate)
- 0x29b5...cc6c — MOUZ, $3,188 (59% win rate)
- 0xdff0...f573 — Aurora Gaming, $3,052 (44% win rate)
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