Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner
This Polymarket tracks who will win Map 2 in the Counter-Strike match between MOUZ and Aurora Gaming in the IEM Rio Group B upper bracket semifinal. The market resolves based on the Map 2 winner, even if the full match is not completed after that map concludes. It is scheduled around April 14, 2026, and settles after the result is confirmed.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between MOUZ and Aurora Gaming in the IEM Rio Group B, initially scheduled for April 14 at 4:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win Map 2 against Aurora Gaming. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win Map 2 against MOUZ. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,407.
Categories: Esports, counter strike 2, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
Profitable esports contrarian
A proven high-volume sports trader with 838 resolved bets and $532k profit bought the underdog Aurora side into a major pre-match volume spike, making this a followable contrarian position despite the modest size.
- This bettor has won 63% of 838 resolved bets and is up $532k overall
- They bought Aurora at 29¢ while the market now sits near 24¢, a clear underdog call
- The match saw a 60x volume surge before start, suggesting focused interest around this setup
$1,214 on Aurora Gaming | Wallet win rate: 63%
3-wallet Aurora pile-in
Three wallets piled into Aurora for over $10k during a major volume spike, led by a serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record and a brand-new repeat wallet betting aggressively.
- Three wallets bought Aurora together for $10.1k, creating a one-sided cluster during a 35x volume spike.
- One wallet has a long track record across 178 markets with a 63% win rate and over $532k profit.
- A 12-hour-old wallet has already been flagged 16 times with $31.8k in bets, suggesting unusually aggressive early conviction.
$10,119 on Aurora Gaming
Pro esports sharp caught early
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with 1,045 resolved bets bought MOUZ at 67¢ before the price jumped to 86%, suggesting a strong read in a liquid esports market.
- This bettor has 1,045 resolved bets, wins 65% of them, and is up $264.7k overall
- They bought MOUZ at 67¢ and the market is now 86¢, locking in a 19-point move in their favor
- This wallet has traded 89 markets across 50 events, showing a repeatable cross-market betting pattern
$995 on MOUZ | Wallet win rate: 65%
76% win-rate esports bettor
A proven high-volume sports trader with a 76% win rate bought MOUZ during a strong pre-match volume surge, making this a modest but credible follow signal despite the small size.
- This bettor has won 642 of 849 resolved trades and is up $35.5k overall
- They trade heavily across related markets with $806.6k tracked volume, suggesting a repeatable event-based edge
- Bought MOUZ at 84¢ during a 35x volume spike, and the market has already moved to 86¢
$1,338 on MOUZ | Wallet win rate: 76%
Serial sports trader beats move
A high-volume serial cross-market sports trader with 940 resolved bets bought MOUZ at 64¢ before the market moved to 74¢, suggesting timely directional edge.
- This bettor has 940 resolved bets with a 67% win rate across 147 events
- They bought MOUZ at 64¢ and the market has already moved up to 74¢
- The trade came during a 36.5x jump in market activity, adding momentum behind the move
$2,666 on MOUZ | Wallet win rate: 67%
18-wallet funded cluster
A large linked-wallet cluster is buying MOUZ together, and two of the wallets are high-volume serial traders with solid 65-67% win rates across hundreds of markets.
- Four linked wallets bought nearly $9.5k of MOUZ in minutes, part of an 18-wallet cluster funded from the same source.
- Two wallets in the group have 65-67% win rates across 940+ resolved bets and more than $620k wagered each.
- The market saw a 50x volume spike, and they bought around 64-66¢ with MOUZ now trading near 66¢.
$9,480 on MOUZ
74% winner hits Aurora
A proven high-volume sports trader with a 74% win rate bought Aurora at 35¢ during a sharp pre-match volume spike, and the bet was large enough to make up over half of recent market volume.
- This bettor has won 564 of 760 resolved trades and is up $117k overall
- They bought Aurora at 35¢, a price that implies a strong edge if their read is right
- This single $4.6k bet was 52% of recent volume as activity jumped 262x above normal
$4,594 on Aurora Gaming | Wallet win rate: 74%
Top Holders
- 0x67bb...b6ef — Aurora Gaming, $50,465 (63% win rate)
- 0x18bb...e5cd — Aurora Gaming, $49,763 (62% win rate)
- 0x2a2c...9bc1 — MOUZ, $45,147 (53% win rate)
- 0x61fe...0956 — MOUZ, $15,498 (76% win rate)
- 0x78a2...d0a5 — Aurora Gaming, $13,916 (44% win rate)
- 0x99e4...e4c4 — Aurora Gaming, $13,127 (74% win rate)
- 0x8cbf...0eb4 — MOUZ, $11,443 (71% win rate)
- 0xf679...16ac — Aurora Gaming, $9,998 (51% win rate)
- 0x507e...beae — MOUZ, $8,938 (50% win rate)
- 0x6a18...2ef0 — MOUZ, $8,638 (84% win rate)
