Part of: Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,052.
Categories: Politics, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Vance, Geopolitics, Iran, Peace Deal, US-Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
94% winner exits No
Sharp high-volume wallet with a 94% resolved-bet record is exiting No, effectively backing Yes after a major one-day move and related cross-market activity.
- This bettor has 2,258 wins in 2,405 resolved bets and is up $31k lifetime.
- They sold No after Yes jumped 21 points in a day, effectively backing Yes around 29¢.
- The wallet is active across 2 related markets with about $3k positioned on the same event.
$1,225 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
New repeat wallet buying NO
Very new wallet with repeated large flagged activity is adding to a No thesis on a geopolitically sensitive market that has already moved sharply that way.
- This 1-day-old wallet has already triggered 12 large-bet alerts totaling $28.6K.
- The trade backs No at 85¢ as the market has moved strongly that way, with Yes down 17 points today.
- Diplomatic-talks markets can reward fast information, and this wallet is repeatedly positioning before the July 10 deadline.
$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
77% winner buying No
Sharp wallet override: a 77% lifetime winner with positive P&L is buying No despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $15.2K lifetime.
- They have placed $4.7K across two related markets, suggesting a broader view on this event.
- Buying No at 55¢ means they are betting the meeting is less likely than the current market implies.
$1,541 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable serial event trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 78% resolved win rate and $184k profit bought Yes, though the market has since retraced well below their entry.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets and is up about $185k lifetime.
- They are a serial event trader across 56 events and 76 markets, with over $620k deployed in this pattern.
- They bought Yes at 56¢ before a rapid move, but the market has since fallen to around 32¢.
$1,353 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable serial macro trader
A profitable, highly active cross-market trader bought Yes before a sharp move from 20¢ to 44¢ on a geopolitically plausible market.
- This bettor has traded 108 markets across 56 events and is up $212K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 20¢ before the market quickly jumped to 44¢.
- The market is moving hard, with Yes up 30 points in the last day amid active diplomatic headlines.
$1,046 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying Yes on a plausible near-term diplomatic-talks market at 37¢.
- This bettor has won 73% of 434 resolved bets and is up $245k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 102 events, with $8.6M previously deployed.
- Buying Yes at 37¢ implies they see the meeting odds as meaningfully underpriced.
$1,387 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0x98a7...df9e — Outcome 51469373, $51,000
- 0xdf17...97d1 — Outcome 51469373, $28,595 (54% win rate)
- 0xb17d...59ae — Outcome 51469373, $23,200 (91% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 51469373, $20,561 (57% win rate)
- 0x0bfb...26a7 — Outcome 51469373, $15,967
- 0x82c9...36fc — Outcome 51469373, $15,160 (39% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 51469373, $11,171 (71% win rate)
- 0x0cbf...4665 — Outcome 51469373, $9,918 (49% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 51469373, $9,262 (75% win rate)
- 0xc902...cd14 — Outcome 51469373, $8,936 (61% win rate)
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Iran deal likely soon
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Iran deal unlikely soon
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