Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

This prediction market covers the Dota 2 PGL Wallachia Playoffs upper bracket quarterfinal BO3 between Aurora and Heroic, scheduled for April 23. Traders are pricing which team will win the match outright, with the market resolving to Aurora or Heroic based on the official winner. If the match is not played, ends in a tie, or is delayed more than 7 days without a winner, the market resolves according to the listed cancellation rules.

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Aurora and Heroic in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 23 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against Heroic. This market will resolve to "Heroic" if Heroic win the match against Aurora. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,684.

Categories: Esports, Dota 2, Games, Sports

Notable Trades

93% win-rate serial bettor

A highly profitable 93% win-rate sports/esports bettor with activity across 118 related markets bought Aurora at 89¢ during a clear pre-match volume spike, making this a credible follow signal despite the short price.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $107k across 353 settled bets
  • They have traded 118 markets across 85 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought Aurora at 89¢ as match volume ran 20.6x above normal, reinforcing the favorite side

$7,064 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 93%

93% win-rate bettor

A serial cross-market bettor with a 93% win rate and six-figure profit is backing Aurora, making this worth surfacing despite the modest alert score and routine market liquidity.

  • This bettor wins 93% of their trades and is up $107k across 353 resolved bets
  • They have traded 117 markets across 85 events, so this looks like a repeatable sports betting edge
  • Bought Aurora at 88¢, a high-confidence favorite price that fits their history of winning on strong views

$1,636 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 93%

99% win-rate bettor

A bettor with an extraordinary 99% win rate and $153k in realized profit is buying Aurora at 74¢, making this a sharp-bettor signal worth following despite the modest stake.

  • This bettor wins 253 of 256 resolved trades and is up $153k lifetime
  • They bought Aurora at 74¢, implying they still see value even with the market already at 72-73¢
  • The signal comes from proven betting skill, not just trade size, in a liquid $102k match market

$1,984 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 99%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1a5c...a375 Aurora, $34,727 (31% win rate)
  2. 0x0554...3de4 Aurora, $19,774
  3. 0x7645...3117 Heroic, $10,000 (50% win rate)
  4. 0x2a8c...fd3d Heroic, $9,706 (54% win rate)
  5. 0x5d34...7c8c Heroic, $6,044 (79% win rate)
  6. 0x4e8d...febf Aurora, $5,653 (66% win rate)
  7. 0x733b...7260 Aurora, $5,599 (87% win rate)
  8. 0x4337...8882 Heroic, $5,555 (77% win rate)
  9. 0x5031...1ffb Aurora, $5,359 (55% win rate)
  10. 0x52b7...0aa1 Heroic, $5,286

Related Theses

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Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Resolved$10,684 tracked3 signalsEsportsDota 2GamesSports
Aurora
100¢
Heroic
0¢

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Aurora and Heroic in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 23 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against Heroic. This market will resolve to "Heroic" if Heroic win the match against Aurora. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price History — “Aurora
102¢
86¢
71¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

5h ago

$7,064 on Aurora at 89¢

89¢100¢11¢

Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

5h ago

$1,636 on Aurora at 88¢

88¢100¢12¢

Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

6h ago

$1,984 on Aurora at 74¢

74¢100¢26¢

Related Theses