What is the Aurora vs Heroic Game 1 prediction market?

This market lets traders take a position on which team will win Game 1 of the Dota 2 upper bracket quarterfinal between Aurora and Heroic at PGL Wallachia. It resolves to the team that officially wins Game 1.

When does the Aurora vs Heroic Game 1 market resolve?

The market is tied to the match scheduled for April 23, 2026, and the listed resolution time is 2026-04-23 16:30:00+00. If Game 1 is completed, the market resolves as soon as an official winner is determined.

What happens if the match is interrupted or not fully completed?

If the overall match starts but does not finish, this market can still resolve normally if Game 1 is completed and a winner is declared. If Game 1 itself is not completed, the market may remain unresolved until the official rules for settlement are applied.

Why are traders watching Heroic in this Polymarket?

Recent smart money alerts show notable buying interest on Heroic, including sharp cluster and linked wallet activity. While that does not guarantee the outcome, it suggests some experienced bettors see value on Heroic for Game 1.

What should I look at besides the current odds?

Beyond the live prediction market odds, traders often compare roster form, recent Dota 2 results, draft trends, and smart money flows. Watching whether professional or high-win-rate wallets continue to buy one side can also help explain market movement.

Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner

This Polymarket tracks who will win Game 1 of the Dota 2 playoff match between Aurora and Heroic at PGL Wallachia. The market resolves based on the Game 1 winner, with resolution tied to the scheduled April 23, 2026 match window. Recent smart money activity has leaned toward Heroic, with multiple sharp cluster alerts highlighting buys on that side.

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Aurora and Heroic in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 23 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against Heroic. This market will resolve to "Heroic" if Heroic win Game 1 against Aurora. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

14 smart money signals detected, totaling $241,561.

Categories: Esports, Dota 2, Games, Sports

Notable Trades

Linked sharp cluster buys Heroic

Seven wallets, including several highly profitable serial traders and five linked by the same funder, piled into Heroic at 26-50¢ before the market crashed to 6%, making this a strong coordinated sharp-money signal worth surfacing.

Five linked wallets and seven total wallets all bought Heroic in a coordinated $16.9k push
Several wallets have elite track records, including one bettor winning 94% of 124 resolved trades and another up $155k
They got in at 26-50¢ and Heroic now trades at 6¢, showing the market moved hard against their position after entry

$16,902 on Heroic

New wallet caught huge move

A very new wallet with repeated large bets bought Aurora at 62¢ before a massive move to 95%, suggesting strong early conviction despite the limited track record.

This 5-day-old wallet has already triggered 21 large-bet alerts, showing unusually aggressive early activity
They bought Aurora at 62¢ and the market is now 95%, catching a 33-point move
The bet is meaningful at $1.5k, but the strongest signal is the timing of the entry before the breakout

$1,483 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 67%

93% win-rate cluster bettor

A proven 93% win-rate sports/esports trader joined a 5-wallet coordinated buy on Heroic before a sharp price collapse, making this a strong follow-worthy signal despite the market now having moved far past their entry.

This bettor wins 93% of 353 resolved trades and is up $107k lifetime
Five wallets all bought Heroic together for $12.2k, which is strong one-sided conviction
They entered at 46¢ before Heroic crashed to 6%, so the edge may already be gone

$1,148 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 93%

96% winner-led cluster

A linked 3-wallet cluster piled into Aurora before a sharp move from 53-62¢ to 94¢, led by a wallet with a 96% win rate and $450k profit history.

One wallet in this cluster wins 96% of its bets and is up $450k across 71 resolved markets
The group bought Aurora at 53-62¢, and another wallet sold Heroic at 27¢, before Aurora jumped to 94%
Five linked wallets share the same funder and have been active across many markets, suggesting coordinated conviction

$5,967 on Aurora

7-wallet Heroic cluster

A proven profitable sports/esports-style trader is part of a 7-wallet, same-direction funded cluster that piled into Heroic at 45¢ before the market moved sharply their way.

This bettor has won 64% of 464 resolved markets and is up $155k lifetime
Seven wallets all bought Heroic, and five of them trace back to the same funder
They entered at 45¢ and Heroic is now 32¢, showing the market moved hard after their buy

$1,776 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 63%

93% win-rate bettor buys dip

A proven sharp sports/esports bettor with a 93% win rate joined a 7-wallet one-sided push into Heroic after a fast price move, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the modest ticket size.

This bettor wins 93% of their trades and is up $213,952 across 97 resolved positions
7 wallets piled into Heroic for $16,062 total, showing coordinated conviction on one side
They bought Heroic at 39¢ after a fast 15-point drop, a cheap entry versus the current thesis

$1,206 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 93%

94% winner in 7-wallet cluster

A proven sharp sports/esports bettor with a 94% win rate bought Heroic at 50¢ alongside 6 other wallets before the market moved sharply in their favor.

This bettor wins 94% of their trades and is up $157k across 124 resolved positions
7 wallets all bought Heroic for $16k total, pointing to strong one-sided conviction
They got in at 50¢ and Heroic is now 32¢, offering a much better entry than the original trade

$985 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 94%

96% win-rate esports sharp

A proven sharp sports wallet with a 96% win rate bought Aurora alongside a 10-wallet one-sided cluster, making this a strong follow despite the market itself being liquid.

This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $450k on $1.16M invested
10 wallets all bought Aurora together, totaling $162.9k in one-sided flow
They entered at 53¢, a near coin-flip price that suggests they see Aurora as modestly mispriced

$2,089 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 96%

Sharp cluster bought Heroic

A large 16-wallet cluster piled into Heroic at 33-40¢, including several elite high-win-rate wallets and some linked funding, pushing a clear coordinated thesis before the market repriced to 50¢.

16 wallets bought Heroic for $81k total, with several entries at 33-35¢ before the price moved to 50¢
Multiple wallets in the group have standout records, including 94-96% win rates across 124 to 359 resolved bets
Five wallets share a funder, which strengthens the signal that this was coordinated conviction rather than random flow

$81,221 on Heroic

9-wallet Aurora pile-in

A 9-wallet cluster piled nearly $160k into Aurora ahead of a huge pre-match volume spike, making this coordinated one-sided esports flow worth watching despite the lead wallet's weak standalone track record.

Nine wallets all bought Aurora in the same window, totaling about $160k of one-sided flow
This market saw a 1923x volume spike, a sign that money rushed in before the match started
This wallet alone put in $112k at 65-67¢, showing strong conviction even though Aurora now trades lower at 62¢

$111,783 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 52%