Part of: Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $41,448.

Categories: Esports, Dota 2, Games, Sports

Notable Trades

Elite esports cluster

Three profitable serial bettors, including wallets with 99% and 91% historical win rates, bought Aurora together before the price jumped from ~67¢ to 87¢.

  • Two of these bettors have extraordinary records: 99% and 91% wins across 217 resolved positions combined.
  • Three wallets bought $6.6k of Aurora at 66–68¢ before the market moved to 87¢.
  • These are serial cross-market traders with hundreds of prior bets and strong lifetime profits.

$6,617 on Aurora

99% winner buying Aurora

Surface: a highly profitable serial sports bettor with a 99% resolved win rate bought Aurora despite the price already being near two-thirds implied probability.

  • This bettor has won 90 of 91 resolved bets and is up $155,792 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 34 events with a 99% win rate.
  • Entry at 68¢ suggests they still see value on Aurora in a fairly liquid match market.

$1,749 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 99%

Proven esports sharp

Proven high-volume cross-market bettor with 71% wins and +$881k lifetime is buying Aurora at 66%.

  • This bettor has won 71% of 987 resolved bets and is up $881k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.48M traded across 331 events.
  • Entry at 66¢ implies they see Aurora as underpriced despite the market already favoring them.

$3,368 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 71%

96% winner backs underdog

A highly proven esports bettor with a 96% win rate and over $2.2M in profit is buying Virtus.pro at 31¢.

  • This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $2.2M lifetime.
  • They have traded across 113 events and 265 markets with the same 96% hit rate.
  • Buying Virtus.pro at 31¢ suggests they see meaningful upside in the underdog.

$1,000 on Virtus.pro | Wallet win rate: 96%

Serial bettor sizing up

A serial cross-market bettor with a positive 103-bet record put a large $28.7k position on Aurora, nearly matching the market's full daily volume.

  • This bettor wins 66% of resolved bets and is up $2.7k across 103 markets.
  • They put $28.7k on Aurora, equal to 88% of this market’s 24h volume.
  • The market is now 83%, slightly better than their 85% entry.

$28,715 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe16d...5e30 Outcome 51638081, $58,598 (96% win rate)
  2. 0x507e...beae Outcome 11327396, $12,886 (50% win rate)
  3. 0x8d85...c436 Outcome 51638081, $10,541 (54% win rate)
  4. 0x52b7...0aa1 Outcome 51638081, $3,750
  5. 0x5672...7312 Outcome 51638081, $3,500
  6. 0x2307...3934 Outcome 51638081, $2,913 (55% win rate)
  7. 0xad4d...dd89 Outcome 51638081, $2,882 (100% win rate)
  8. 0x30da...a11d Outcome 51638081, $2,632
  9. 0x5d34...7c8c Outcome 51638081, $2,500 (83% win rate)
  10. 0x2d39...6053 Outcome 51638081, $2,124 (48% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

ResolvedDota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A$41,448 tracked5 signalsEsportsDota 2GamesSports

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Aurora and Virtus.pro in the DreamLeague Group A, initially scheduled for May 17 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against Virtus.pro. This market will resolve to "Virtus.pro" if Virtus.pro win the match against Aurora. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Notable Trades

Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

1d ago

$6,617 on Aurora at 67¢

Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

1d ago

$1,749 on Aurora at 68¢

Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

1d ago

$3,368 on Aurora at 66¢

Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

1d ago

$1,000 on Virtus.pro at 31¢

Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

1d ago

$28,715 on Aurora at 85¢

Related Theses