What is the Mandalorian and Grogu under $92M box office market about?

This market predicts whether The Mandalorian and Grogu will earn less than $92 million at the domestic box office during its 4-day opening weekend, from May 22 through May 25, 2026.

How will this Polymarket resolve?

The market resolves using the final, non-estimate Daily Box Office Performance figures listed on The Numbers for the movie’s 4-day domestic opening weekend. Studio estimates are not used for final settlement.

When does the The Mandalorian and Grogu box office market resolve?

The listed resolution date is May 26, 2026, after final box office data for the May 22–25 opening weekend becomes available.

What does “Yes” mean in this market?

A Yes outcome means The Mandalorian and Grogu grosses less than $92 million domestically over its 4-day opening weekend. A No outcome means it reaches or exceeds that threshold, subject to the market’s bracket rules.

Is there smart money activity on this market?

Yes. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,840 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this market, including a recent alert that a profitable bettor flipped to Yes.

Part of: "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?

This prediction market asks whether The Mandalorian and Grogu will gross less than $92 million domestically across its 4-day opening weekend from May 22–25, 2026. It resolves after final Daily Box Office Performance data is posted on The Numbers, with resolution expected on May 26, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,840 in smart money across 1 signal, including a recent alert that a profitable bettor flipped to Yes.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day opening weekend (May 22 - May 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 4-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,840.

Categories: Movies, Culture, box office, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor flips Yes

Surface due to sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is buying Yes after previously closing the opposite position, despite only weak detection signals.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $38k lifetime.
They previously closed a No position and are now buying Yes at 39¢, signaling a thesis shift.
The market has moved 11.5 points in a day, supporting the same direction as this buy.

$1,840 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%