Part of: "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,684.

Categories: Movies, Culture, box office, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Profitable box-office specialist

A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader is making a sizable No bet on a box-office bracket despite the alert’s low composite score.

  • This bettor has traded across 122 markets and is up about $641K lifetime.
  • They put $8.8K on No, implying conviction that the 4-day opening weekend will not be below $92M.
  • The market has moved against their entry, so the same side may be available cheaper than they paid.

$8,843 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Profitable bettor flips Yes

Surface due to sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is buying Yes after previously closing the opposite position, despite only weak detection signals.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $38k lifetime.
  • They previously closed a No position and are now buying Yes at 39¢, signaling a thesis shift.
  • The market has moved 11.5 points in a day, supporting the same direction as this buy.

$1,840 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 10717355, $64,163
  2. 0x5095...93ee Outcome 11250914, $20,986 (52% win rate)
  3. 0xe2b1...7d2a Outcome 11250914, $19,348 (46% win rate)
  4. 0xb413...1cb7 Outcome 11250914, $17,024
  5. 0x682d...4cd6 Outcome 11250914, $14,068
  6. 0x0113...6f26 Outcome 11250914, $12,865
  7. 0x3ee4...3aba Outcome 11250914, $3,242
  8. 0x46a2...7d8a Outcome 11250914, $2,330
  9. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 11250914, $1,517
  10. 0x66b5...e5a4 Outcome 11250914, $1,509

Related Theses

US-Iran deal by late May

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Raman and Pratt won’t win

Covers 2 related markets

MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin in June

Covers 3 related markets

Mandalorian opens below $112M

Covers 2 related markets

Michael tops 35m weekend

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?

Resolved"The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office$10,684 tracked2 signalsMoviesCulturebox officeRewards 50, 4.5, 20

This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day opening weekend (May 22 - May 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 4-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Notable Trades

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?

57d ago

$8,843 on No at 73¢

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?

59d ago

$1,840 on Yes at 39¢

Related Theses