Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

This Polymarket tracks the Dota 2 PGL Wallachia Group Stage best-of-3 match between Xtreme Gaming and Aurora, scheduled for April 19. The market resolves to the team that wins the BO3, with cancellation, a tie, or a delay beyond 7 days resulting in a refund. PolySpotter is tracking $51,621 in smart money across recent esports betting signals, including notable Aurora-focused wallet activity.

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 2 match between Xtreme Gaming and Aurora in the PGL Wallachia Group Stage, initially scheduled for April 19 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win the match against Aurora. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against Xtreme Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

20 smart money signals detected, totaling $126,598.

Categories: Esports, Dota 2, Games, Sports

Notable Trades

Linked underdog cluster

A linked-wallet cluster with one clearly profitable bettor coordinated into the underdog side of a major esports market, creating a sharp cross-wallet signal despite mixed wallet quality.

  • 3 linked wallets all took Xtreme Gaming around 48-58¢, for nearly $4.0k total
  • One wallet stands out with a 67% hit rate across 351 resolved bets and $122.5k profit
  • They bought into a fast 26-point price swing, suggesting strong conviction on the underdog

$3,956 on Xtreme Gaming

98% win-rate bettor

A proven sharp bettor with a 98% win rate bought Aurora alongside 8 other wallets during a major volume surge, making this coordinated esports flow worth following.

  • This bettor wins 98% of resolved trades and is up about $3.1M across 349 settled positions.
  • 9 wallets all bought Aurora for a combined $38.8k as volume ran 37x above normal.
  • They entered at 53¢, near the current 54¢ market price, showing fresh conviction rather than chasing a blowout move.

$4,943 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 98%

18-0 sharp in 9-wallet cluster

A proven sharp wallet with a perfect 18-0 resolved record joined a 9-wallet, $57.6k one-sided push into Xtreme Gaming alongside heavy event-wide buying.

  • This bettor has won 18 of 18 resolved trades and is up $355.7k, with average winning entries around 41¢.
  • Nine wallets bought Xtreme Gaming in the same wave, putting $57.6k behind one side of this match.
  • The buy came at 50¢ in a very active event, suggesting they saw Xtreme Gaming as undervalued even near a coin-flip price.

$1,034 on Xtreme Gaming | Wallet win rate: 100%

9-wallet Xtreme cluster

A coordinated 9-wallet push into Xtreme Gaming on a high-volume esports market stands out despite this wallet’s weak personal track record, because the cluster signal is strong and the wallet is a very active new account.

  • 9 wallets all bought Xtreme Gaming in the same window, totaling $57.6k
  • This wallet is under 2 days old but has already made 18 flagged bets worth $45.8k
  • The market saw a 54.7x volume spike, suggesting a sudden wave of conviction before the match

$1,431 on Xtreme Gaming | Wallet win rate: 43%

9-wallet esports pile-in

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a solid long-term record joined a 9-wallet one-sided push into Xtreme Gaming during a major pre-match volume surge.

  • 9 wallets put $57.6k on Xtreme Gaming in the same direction, a strong one-sided signal
  • This bettor has a 65% win rate across 1,182 resolved bets and is up $148k lifetime
  • Market volume jumped 54.7x above normal before the match, showing unusually strong interest

$4,205 on Xtreme Gaming | Wallet win rate: 65%

93% winner in 7-wallet pile-in

A highly profitable serial sports trader with a 93% win rate bought Aurora at 50¢ while 7 wallets piled into the same side during a major pre-match volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 93% of their trades and is up about $2.0M across 213 resolved positions.
  • Seven wallets all bought Aurora, with $28.3k total on the same side during a 36.6x volume spike.
  • Entry at 50¢ is near a coin flip, suggesting they see Aurora as clearly mispriced.

$9,850 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 93%

46-0 sharp joins Aurora cluster

A proven sharp wallet with a perfect 46-for-46 record bought Aurora at 49¢ while 7 wallets piled into the same side during a major pre-match volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 46 of 46 resolved trades and is up $193k lifetime
  • Seven wallets bought Aurora for a combined $28.3k, showing clear one-sided conviction
  • The buy came at 49¢ in a high-volume surge, close to a coin-flip price with room if their edge is real

$3,431 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 100%

96% win-rate esports bettor

A highly profitable esports bettor with a 96% win rate joined a 7-wallet one-sided Aurora cluster during a major volume spike, making this a strong copy-trade signal.

  • This bettor wins 96% of their trades and is up about $2.0M across 372 resolved positions.
  • Seven wallets all piled into Aurora for $28.3k total, which is strong one-way conviction.
  • They bought Aurora at 50¢ during a 36.6x volume spike, suggesting they saw this as mispriced near a coin flip.

$6,550 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 96%

18-0 sharp cross-market bettor

A serial cross-market bettor with a perfect 18-0 resolved record and $355k profit just took a fresh $4.3k position on Xtreme Gaming, making this a sharp-bettor signal worth tracking despite the modest size.

  • This bettor has won 18 of 18 resolved markets and is up $355k overall
  • They have traded 43 markets across 38 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off hit
  • They bought Xtreme Gaming at 53¢, and the market now sits around 48¢, offering a better follow price than the original entry

$4,337 on Xtreme Gaming | Wallet win rate: 100%

18-0 sharp esports bettor

A bettor with a perfect 18-for-18 resolved record and strong cross-market event history just put $5.2k on Xtreme Gaming at roughly even odds, making this a notable sharp-style esports play.

  • This bettor has won 18 of 18 resolved markets and is up about $356k total
  • They have traded 43 markets across 38 events with a perfect recorded hit rate
  • Bought Xtreme Gaming at 51¢, a near-even price that suggests they see a clear edge

$5,175 on Xtreme Gaming | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ea...d96a Xtreme Gaming, $153,473 (50% win rate)
  2. 0xad2b...f091 Xtreme Gaming, $145,350 (100% win rate)
  3. 0xe16d...5e30 Xtreme Gaming, $129,973 (100% win rate)
  4. 0x0dcf...c556 Aurora, $89,419 (93% win rate)
  5. 0xa16a...33a1 Aurora, $72,624 (100% win rate)
  6. 0x3ef4...4f5e Aurora, $64,207
  7. 0x2307...3934 Aurora, $47,957 (51% win rate)
  8. 0x5922...3388 Aurora, $36,075 (64% win rate)
  9. 0xc44f...d49f Aurora, $33,057 (96% win rate)
  10. 0xb042...204c Aurora, $27,625

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Resolved$126,598 tracked20 signalsEsportsDota 2GamesSports
Xtreme Gaming
0¢
Aurora
100¢

This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 2 match between Xtreme Gaming and Aurora in the PGL Wallachia Group Stage, initially scheduled for April 19 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win the match against Aurora. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against Xtreme Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price History — “Aurora
102¢
70¢
38¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

10h ago

$3,956 on Xtreme Gaming at 52¢

52¢0¢52¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

10h ago

$4,943 on Aurora at 53¢

53¢100¢47¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

10h ago

$1,034 on Xtreme Gaming at 50¢

50¢0¢50¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

10h ago

$1,431 on Xtreme Gaming at 51¢

51¢0¢51¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

10h ago

$4,205 on Xtreme Gaming at 51¢

51¢0¢51¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

10h ago

$9,850 on Aurora at 50¢

50¢100¢50¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

10h ago

$3,431 on Aurora at 49¢

49¢100¢51¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

10h ago

$6,550 on Aurora at 50¢

50¢100¢50¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

11h ago

$4,337 on Xtreme Gaming at 53¢

53¢0¢53¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

11h ago

$5,175 on Xtreme Gaming at 51¢

51¢0¢51¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

12h ago

$5,397 on Aurora at 50¢

50¢100¢50¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

10h ago

$7,330 on Aurora at 65¢

65¢100¢35¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

12h ago

$4,986 on Xtreme Gaming at 50¢

50¢0¢50¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

10h ago

$20,241 on Xtreme Gaming at 57¢

57¢0¢57¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

13h ago

$1,970 on Xtreme Gaming at 50¢

50¢0¢50¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

13h ago

$4,548 on Aurora at 51¢

51¢100¢49¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

13h ago

$4,689 on Aurora at 51¢

51¢100¢49¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

13h ago

$26,595 on Xtreme Gaming at 50¢

50¢0¢50¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

14h ago

$4,911 on Xtreme Gaming at 51¢

51¢0¢51¢

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

14h ago

$1,019 on Aurora at 50¢

50¢100¢50¢

Related Theses