Part of: Ecuador vs. Germany - More Markets

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

16 smart money signals detected, totaling $277,566.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Profitable wallet in Over cluster

High-score alert from a profitable wallet joining a 4-wallet Over cluster, though the market has since moved sharply against the trade.

  • Four wallets bought the same Over side for $18.9k, including two linked wallets.
  • The featured wallet is up about $900k lifetime across 4,417 resolved trades.
  • Over was entered around 51¢ and is now 14¢, so the market has moved heavily against them.

$4,252 on Over | Wallet win rate: 54%

89% winner on clustered Over

A highly profitable 89% winner bought Over alongside one-sided clustered flow, though the market has since moved sharply against the entry.

  • This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $2.3M lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market bettor with $5.3M traded across 967 markets.
  • Four wallets bought Over the same way, including two linked wallets, during a 22x volume spike.

$2,451 on Over | Wallet win rate: 89%

Profitable wallet in Over cluster

High-score alert from a profitable wallet joining a 4-wallet Over cluster, though the market has since moved sharply against the trade.

  • Four wallets bought the same Over side for $18.9k, including two linked wallets.
  • The featured wallet is up about $900k lifetime across 4,417 resolved trades.
  • Over was entered around 51¢ and is now 14¢, so the market has moved heavily against them.

$5,283 on Over | Wallet win rate: 54%

Profitable serial sports trader

A profitable serial sports trader joined a small one-sided Over cluster during a major volume spike, though the market has since moved below their 48¢ entry.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 65% wins across 301 resolved bets and $34.6K in profit.
  • Three wallets bought Over in the same window, totaling about $6.1K on one side.
  • The market saw a 10x volume spike, and Over had already moved up 10 points on the day.

$1,451 on Over | Wallet win rate: 67%

Coordinated Under flow

High composite from coordinated Under buying, a large event-wide positioning pattern, volume spike, and rapid price movement, despite this wallet’s weak long-term P&L.

  • Four wallets bought the Under side together, totaling about $21k in the same direction.
  • Market activity spiked 33x versus its normal pace, with the Under price moving sharply in minutes.
  • This wallet is active across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader game-level thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$15,025 on Under | Wallet win rate: 53%

Profitable bettor joins Under cluster

A profitable sports bettor is buying Under alongside a small same-direction cluster, despite a very liquid market and recent sharp move.

  • This bettor has won 72% of 135 resolved bets and is up $85.7K lifetime.
  • Three wallets bought the same Under outcome for a combined $14.1K.
  • The bet follows a fast 10-point move, suggesting active momentum around this total.

$3,680 on Under | Wallet win rate: 71%

12-wallet Over surge

Despite this wallet's weak long-term P&L, the alert is worth surfacing because broad one-sided flow, a 72x volume spike, and a 30-point Over move suggest coordinated conviction around a high-volume World Cup market.

  • 12 wallets pushed $124K onto Over, creating a strong one-sided move.
  • Volume spiked 72x above normal and Over is up about 31 points in a day.
  • This wallet bought Over around 76¢, while the market is now closer to 64¢.

$7,212 on Over | Wallet win rate: 53%

12-wallet Over surge

High-score sports alert with 12 wallets buying Over, a 72x volume spike, major price impact, and a high-hit-rate cross-market trader joining despite the entry now being above market.

  • 12 wallets bought the same side, totaling $124K on Over.
  • This bettor has won 84% of 116 resolved bets and regularly trades across sports markets.
  • Volume spiked 72x and Over jumped about 30 points, signaling strong one-way momentum.

$3,000 on Over | Wallet win rate: 86%

12-wallet Over surge

High-conviction one-sided flow: 12 wallets bought Over amid a 72x volume spike and a 30-point price move, despite this individual wallet having negative lifetime P&L.

  • 12 wallets are all buying Over, totaling $124K in the same direction.
  • Volume spiked 72x above normal as the Over price jumped about 30 points.
  • This trade entered at 75¢, while the market is now around 64¢, offering a cheaper entry than the flagged buy.

$6,750 on Over | Wallet win rate: 63%

Profitable cluster chased Over

A profitable 4-wallet cluster bought $41k of Over before a major 40-point move, alongside a 136x pre-event volume spike and strong price impact.

  • Four wallets bought $41k of Over, mostly around 52–53¢ before it jumped to 72¢.
  • The two largest bettors are up about $701k and $2.38M lifetime across thousands of resolved trades.
  • Volume spiked 136x above normal and the Over price is up 40 points in 24 hours.

$14,798 on Over

Top Holders

  1. 0x9732...1539 Outcome 21683004, $117,479 (100% win rate)
  2. 0x1eaf...9bf0 Outcome 21683004, $50,004 (63% win rate)
  3. 0x332a...c9a2 Outcome 21683004, $23,000 (48% win rate)
  4. 0xf28e...cab2 Outcome 21683004, $10,499 (89% win rate)
  5. 0xa80e...6aa1 Outcome 21683004, $9,999 (53% win rate)
  6. 0x4f29...7a7e Outcome 21683004, $9,345 (54% win rate)
  7. 0x4582...619e Outcome 21683004, $7,000 (81% win rate)
  8. 0x2005...75ea Outcome 21683004, $4,909 (55% win rate)
  9. 0xddc3...029c Outcome 21683004, $4,500 (92% win rate)
  10. 0x05e3...4b87 Outcome 21683004, $4,167 (98% win rate)

Related Theses

Spurs win high-scoring game

Covers 5 related markets

Cavaliers keep low-scoring game close

Covers 4 related markets

Thunder win low-scoring close game

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Spurs win a close game

Covers 7 related markets

Spurs win low-scoring close game

Covers 10 related markets

England Spain or Brazil wins

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Cavaliers upset Knicks in shootout

Covers 6 related markets

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

ResolvedEcuador vs. Germany - More Markets$277,566 tracked16 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Ecuador and Germany, scheduled for June 25 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Ecuador and Germany combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Germany
GER
1
World Cup
Live
45'+4'
Ecuador
ECU
1
ECU 11/4GER 6/5
Venue
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Price History — “Over
57¢
41¢
26¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$4,252 on Over at 51¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$2,451 on Over at 48¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$5,283 on Over at 51¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$1,451 on Over at 48¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$15,025 on Under at 46¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$3,680 on Under at 46¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$7,212 on Over at 76¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$3,000 on Over at 75¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$6,750 on Over at 75¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$14,798 on Over at 52¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$68,836 on Under at 68¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$74,845 on Under at 67¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$40,747 on Over at 35¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$24,512 on Under at 67¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

6d ago

$1,475 on Under at 66¢

Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5

7d ago

$3,250 on Under at 65¢

Related Theses