Part of: US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens

Game Spread: Osaka (-4.5) vs Mertens (+4.5)

This prediction market asks whether Naomi Osaka will defeat Elise Mertens by at least 4.5 total games in their scheduled match on September 4, 2026, at 11:00 AM ET. Games are counted across all sets, including tiebreak rules, and the market is scheduled to resolve by September 11, 2026; current market pricing was not included in the supplied data.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,300.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor scales into Mertens

A highly profitable bettor with an 84% win rate is adding $6,000 to an already sizable Mertens position in an extremely thin market.

  • This bettor wins 84% of 640 resolved trades and is up $267,390 lifetime.
  • The $6,000 buy is an addition to an existing $11,467 Mertens position, showing increased conviction.
  • The trade was over 115 times the market’s 24-hour volume, making the position unusually meaningful in this thin market.

$1,300 on Mertens | Wallet win rate: 84%

Sharp bettor scales into Mertens

A highly profitable bettor with an 84% win rate is adding $6,000 to an already sizable Mertens position in an extremely thin market.

  • This bettor wins 84% of 640 resolved trades and is up $267,390 lifetime.
  • The $6,000 buy is an addition to an existing $11,467 Mertens position, showing increased conviction.
  • The trade was over 115 times the market’s 24-hour volume, making the position unusually meaningful in this thin market.

$6,000 on Mertens | Wallet win rate: 84%

Top Holders

  1. 0x21f3...35e3 Outcome 66541025, $8,996 (74% win rate)
  2. 0xd619...c461 Outcome 66541025, $4,733
  3. 0xcf6c...7e66 Outcome 66541025, $748 (81% win rate)
  4. 0xf6f7...c7a2 Outcome 66541025, $146
  5. 0x0ac5...f963 Outcome 66541025, $78
  6. 0x16cf...a2fb Outcome 66541025, $60
  7. 0xc4d3...5639 Outcome 66541025, $7
  8. 0x2bb4...4551 Outcome 66541025, $5
  9. 0x3637...21a4 Outcome 66541025, $5
  10. 0x8b81...988c Outcome 66541025, $2

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Game Spread: Osaka (-4.5) vs Mertens (+4.5)

ResolvedUS Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens$7,300 tracked2 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market will resolve to "Osaka" if Naomi Osaka wins 4.5 or more total games than Elise Mertens in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Mertens". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the match ends at a point where Naomi Osaka could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Mertens". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Mertens
72¢
61¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Game Spread: Osaka (-4.5) vs Mertens (+4.5)

6d ago

$1,300 on Mertens at 52¢

Game Spread: Osaka (-4.5) vs Mertens (+4.5)

6d ago

$6,000 on Mertens at 52¢

Related Theses