What is the Baez vs Michelsen Geneva Open prediction market about?

This market is about which player will advance from the Geneva Open match between Sebastian Baez and Alex Michelsen. It resolves to Sebastian Baez if he wins and advances, or to Alex Michelsen if he wins and advances.

When does the Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve by May 25, 2026 at 08:00 UTC, depending on when the match winner is determined. The match was originally scheduled for May 18, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.

What happens if Baez vs Michelsen is canceled or delayed?

If the match is not played at all, ends without a winner, or is delayed more than 7 days beyond the scheduled date without a winner, the market will follow the stated cancellation and delay resolution rules.

How much smart money is tracked on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $7,516 in smart money activity on the Baez vs Michelsen market, based on 2 smart money signals.

What smart money signals are showing for Baez vs Michelsen?

Recent alerts include a sharp bettor flipping sides and activity from a serial sports momentum bettor, suggesting notable trader interest in this Geneva Open matchup.

Part of: Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen

Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen

This prediction market tracks who will advance in the Geneva Open match between Sebastian Baez and Alex Michelsen, originally scheduled for May 18, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. It resolves to the winning player once the match is completed, with cancellation or extended delay rules applying through the May 25, 2026 resolution deadline. PolySpotter currently tracks $7,516 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including a sharp bettor flipping sides and a serial sports momentum bettor.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,516.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor flipped sides

Sharp 82% lifetime winner with strong profits flipped from Baez to Michelsen while driving a major price breakout.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $117k lifetime.
They closed a Baez position and bought Michelsen at 87¢, signaling a clear change in view.
Michelsen jumped about 30 points beyond the prior range, with rapid buying into an 86% market.

$2,200 on Alex Michelsen | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial sports momentum bettor

High-score live tennis momentum trade: a serial cross-market sports bettor bought $5.3k of Michelsen after a sharp odds breakout, though the wallet’s lifetime P&L is negative.

This bettor has traded 183 markets across 168 events with a 75% hit rate.
Michelsen’s odds jumped rapidly to 86%, including a 13-point move in 3 minutes.
The $5.3k buy came during a major breakout from the prior 55–56% range.

$5,316 on Alex Michelsen | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

0x5fea...78b1 — Outcome 54454574, $6,148
0xf519...906b — Outcome 54454574, $5,396 (55% win rate)
0x9851...1320 — Outcome 54454574, $5,095
0xe700...dc26 — Outcome 54454574, $2,919
0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 54454574, $2,170 (73% win rate)
0x99d7...6435 — Outcome 54454574, $1,500 (92% win rate)
0xe524...d34f — Outcome 81210927, $1,436 (48% win rate)
0xc26a...b715 — Outcome 54454574, $1,364 (26% win rate)
0x6190...5d90 — Outcome 54454574, $1,082 (70% win rate)
0xe7b5...b370 — Outcome 54454574, $1,061

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen

4dGeneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen$7,516 tracked2 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Alex Michelsen in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 18, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Alex Michelsen. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Sebastian Baez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.