Part of: Genoa: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Federico Arnaboldi

Genoa: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Federico Arnaboldi

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $78,327.

Notable Trades

Large contrarian tennis cluster

A $47K contrarian push toward Federico Arnaboldi stands out because it arrived during a massive volume spike, although the traders are adding to losing positions and lack a strong win-rate edge.

Three wallets committed $47,000 to the 14% underdog during a 1,735x historical volume spike.
The largest bettor added $31,500 to Federico at 31¢ despite already holding $94,500 bought at the same price.
The trade is highly speculative: the market moved 23 percentage points toward Varillas, and the participating wallets have only modest or negative track records.

$46,953 on Federico Arnaboldi

Sharp bettors lead five-wallet Varillas cluster

Five wallets bought Varillas for $23.7K as volume surged 1,809x and the price jumped 25%, including two highly profitable bettors with strong historical edges.

Five wallets committed $23,715 to Varillas, driving a 25% price jump and an extraordinary 1,809x volume spike.
Two leading bettors have exceptional records: 99% wins with $1.16M profit and 81% wins with $390K profit.
The cluster’s weighted entry was about 61.5¢, while Varillas now trades near 70¢, so much of the move has already occurred.

$23,715 on Juan Pablo Varillas

99% win-rate tennis sharp

A highly proven tennis trader bought Varillas at a substantial discount, with a 99% win rate and $1.16M lifetime profit.

This bettor has won 1,216 of 1,234 resolved trades and is up $1.16M lifetime.
They bought Varillas at 60¢ while the market has since risen to 68¢, signaling strong early conviction.
The entry implies the trader valued Varillas well above the market’s initial price, with room to copy up to 70¢.

$3,000 on Juan Pablo Varillas | Wallet win rate: 99%

Sharp bettor scales into Varillas

A proven high-volume bettor with an 81% win rate added to an existing Varillas position at a highly favorable 41% entry before the market rose to 68%.

This bettor wins 81% of 189 resolved trades and is up $389,561 lifetime.
They added $2,909 at 41% to an existing $7,068 Varillas position, showing strong conviction before the price climbed to 68%.
The market moved 19 percentage points in Varillas's favor after the trade.

$2,909 on Juan Pablo Varillas | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable serial trader catches tennis move

A highly experienced, profitable serial trader bought Federico Arnaboldi at 64% before the outcome moved to 82%, providing a meaningful but moderate copy signal.

This bettor has won 66% of 28,656 resolved trades and is up $7.1 million lifetime.
They bought Federico Arnaboldi at 64%, and the price has since risen to 82% after a rapid 14-point move.
The $1,751 position is meaningful relative to the market’s $7,598 trading volume, though liquidity is ample.

$1,751 on Federico Arnaboldi | Wallet win rate: 66%

Top Holders

0xa032...2090 — Outcome 11397541, $4,000 (67% win rate)
0x5965...935f — Outcome 11397541, $3,182 (65% win rate)
0x32b4...8b21 — Outcome 11397541, $2,357 (58% win rate)
0x7547...d158 — Outcome 11397541, $385
0x0fb7...0bd3 — Outcome 11397541, $172
0xe0ab...d374 — Outcome 11397541, $162
0x2c9b...10a8 — Outcome 11397541, $154
0x884b...c480 — Outcome 11397541, $115
0x1a1e...f992 — Outcome 11397541, $92
0x455e...f7f9 — Outcome 11397541, $77 (93% win rate)

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Genoa: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Federico Arnaboldi

ResolvedGenoa: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Federico Arnaboldi$78,327 tracked5 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Pablo Varillas and Federico Arnaboldi in the Genoa, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Federico Arnaboldi. This market will resolve to 'Federico Arnaboldi' if Federico Arnaboldi advances against Juan Pablo Varillas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Juan Pablo Varillas”

73¢

54¢

35¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction