Part of: Lincoln: Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka
Lincoln: Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka
This Polymarket market covers the Lincoln tennis match between Colton Smith and Hayato Matsuoka, resolving to the player who advances. The match was originally scheduled for July 16, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET, with final resolution by July 23, 2026 if needed. PolySpotter is tracking $19,176 in smart money and 1 recent sharp signal on this market.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,418.
Categories: Sports, Games, Tennis
Notable Trades
96% winner buying underdog
Elite 96% lifetime wallet with nearly $5M profit made a $19.2k contrarian buy on Matsuoka, though the market has since moved sharply against the entry.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up nearly $5.0M lifetime.
- They put $19.2k on Matsuoka at an average 33¢ entry despite the market now pricing him near 12¢.
- This wallet is a major serial sports trader, active across 436 events with $14.1M traded.
$19,176 on Hayato Matsuoka | Wallet win rate: 96%
96% win-rate sharp
Elite tracked wallet with 96% historical win rate and nearly $5M profit is taking a $9.8k underdog position on Hayato Matsuoka.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up nearly $5M lifetime.
- They have traded across 435 events with a 96% win rate, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Hayato at 32¢ as an underdog, implying they see meaningful upside versus the market price.
$9,800 on Hayato Matsuoka | Wallet win rate: 96%
Profitable serial sports bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a massive sample is buying Colton Smith at 81¢, though the individual stake is modest.
- This bettor has won 64% of 9,838 resolved bets and is up $4.27M lifetime.
- They have traded 1,481 markets across 962 events, suggesting a systematic sports betting edge.
- Entry at 81¢ is close to the current 82¢ market price, implying they still see value on Colton Smith.
$1,442 on Colton Smith | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0x5f65...2036 — Outcome 11410199, $57,692 (96% win rate)
- 0x5213...6a35 — Outcome 11410199, $1,982 (74% win rate)
- 0xeaac...d71d — Outcome 11410199, $1,207 (82% win rate)
- 0x6318...46b1 — Outcome 11410199, $1,053
- 0xb4d0...a1c5 — Outcome 11410199, $861 (46% win rate)
- 0x9b10...2e23 — Outcome 11410199, $819
- 0x2f26...0d8f — Outcome 11410199, $787
- 0x3a14...9fe4 — Outcome 11410199, $777
- 0x2aa1...1ea8 — Outcome 11410199, $483 (88% win rate)
- 0x0418...8159 — Outcome 11410199, $459
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