Part of: Lincoln: Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka

Lincoln: Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka

This Polymarket market covers the Lincoln tennis match between Colton Smith and Hayato Matsuoka, resolving to the player who advances. The match was originally scheduled for July 16, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET, with final resolution by July 23, 2026 if needed. PolySpotter is tracking $19,176 in smart money and 1 recent sharp signal on this market.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,418.

Categories: Sports, Games, Tennis

Notable Trades

96% winner buying underdog

Elite 96% lifetime wallet with nearly $5M profit made a $19.2k contrarian buy on Matsuoka, though the market has since moved sharply against the entry.

  • This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up nearly $5.0M lifetime.
  • They put $19.2k on Matsuoka at an average 33¢ entry despite the market now pricing him near 12¢.
  • This wallet is a major serial sports trader, active across 436 events with $14.1M traded.

$19,176 on Hayato Matsuoka | Wallet win rate: 96%

96% win-rate sharp

Elite tracked wallet with 96% historical win rate and nearly $5M profit is taking a $9.8k underdog position on Hayato Matsuoka.

  • This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up nearly $5M lifetime.
  • They have traded across 435 events with a 96% win rate, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought Hayato at 32¢ as an underdog, implying they see meaningful upside versus the market price.

$9,800 on Hayato Matsuoka | Wallet win rate: 96%

Profitable serial sports bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a massive sample is buying Colton Smith at 81¢, though the individual stake is modest.

  • This bettor has won 64% of 9,838 resolved bets and is up $4.27M lifetime.
  • They have traded 1,481 markets across 962 events, suggesting a systematic sports betting edge.
  • Entry at 81¢ is close to the current 82¢ market price, implying they still see value on Colton Smith.

$1,442 on Colton Smith | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0x5f65...2036 Outcome 11410199, $57,692 (96% win rate)
  2. 0x5213...6a35 Outcome 11410199, $1,982 (74% win rate)
  3. 0xeaac...d71d Outcome 11410199, $1,207 (82% win rate)
  4. 0x6318...46b1 Outcome 11410199, $1,053
  5. 0xb4d0...a1c5 Outcome 11410199, $861 (46% win rate)
  6. 0x9b10...2e23 Outcome 11410199, $819
  7. 0x2f26...0d8f Outcome 11410199, $787
  8. 0x3a14...9fe4 Outcome 11410199, $777
  9. 0x2aa1...1ea8 Outcome 11410199, $483 (88% win rate)
  10. 0x0418...8159 Outcome 11410199, $459

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Belgium dominates Iran early

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Czechia wins big early

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Lincoln: Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka

1dLincoln: Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka$30,418 tracked3 signalsSportsGamesTennis

This market refers to the tennis match between Colton Smith and Hayato Matsuoka in the Lincoln, originally scheduled for July 16, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Colton Smith' if Colton Smith advances against Hayato Matsuoka. This market will resolve to 'Hayato Matsuoka' if Hayato Matsuoka advances against Colton Smith. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Lincoln: Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka

4d ago

$19,176 on Hayato Matsuoka at 33¢

Lincoln: Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka

4d ago

$9,800 on Hayato Matsuoka at 32¢

Lincoln: Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka

4d ago

$1,442 on Colton Smith at 81¢

Related Theses

Belgium won't beat Egypt
Wallet_0x076da trades 3 related markets
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15…Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in …
Germany dominates Curaçao shutout
Wallet_0x076da trades 6 related markets
Spread: Germany (-2.5)Spread: Germany (-3.5)Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5
Iraq Norway goal fest
Wallet_0x5f659 trades 4 related markets
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U …Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U …
Belgium dominates Iran early
Wallet_0x5f659 trades 4 related markets
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half …Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half …
Czechia wins big early
Wallet_0x5f659 trades 3 related markets
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st …Spread: Czechia (-1.5)Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st …
Canada Qatar first-half shootout
Wallet_0x5f659 trades 5 related markets
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U…Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams t…
Germany wins high-scoring rout
Wallet_0x5f659 trades 4 related markets
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to …Spread: Germany (-1.5)Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half…
France Northern Ireland goals galore
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France vs. Northern Ireland: O…France vs. Northern Ireland: O…France vs. Northern Ireland: O…
Norway advances in goalfest
Wallet_0x5f659 trades 3 related markets
Norway vs. England: Team to Ad…Norway vs. England: 1st Half O…Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5
USA Australia goalfest starts early
Wallet_0x5f659 trades 3 related markets
United States vs. Australia: O…United States vs. Australia: 1…United States vs. Australia: 1…