7 wallets are all buying the same outcome, totaling $35.1K on Messi to score. This bettor is profitable overall, up $43.3K across $502K invested with a 57% win rate. Yes has fallen from their 52¢ entry to about 44¢, so the market is currently offering a cheaper copy price.

Part of: Argentina vs. Switzerland - Player Props

Lionel Messi: 1+ goals

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $153,790.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

89% winner leads No cluster

A highly profitable 89% win-rate wallet is leading a $24.7k No cluster, adding into a position as market momentum moves toward No despite conflicting Yes flow.

A bettor who wins 89% of resolved positions and is up $3.0M bought the largest piece of this No position.
Three wallets bought $24.7k of No around 48–50¢, and No is already trading near 56¢.
Two wallets are adding to existing No positions, suggesting continued conviction rather than a one-off trade.

$24,718 on No

83% winner joins Yes cluster

Proven 83% sports bettor bought Messi to score alongside a 7-wallet one-sided flow and a large pre-event volume spike, though the market has since moved against the entry.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $193k lifetime.
Seven wallets bought the same side for $35k total before the match.
The market saw a 77x pre-event volume spike, suggesting unusually strong attention on this prop.

$1,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Sharp wallet joins Yes cluster

Sharp profitable wallet made a $15k Yes buy alongside 7-wallet one-sided flow and a major pre-event volume spike, despite the price later moving against the entry.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up about $809k lifetime.
Seven wallets bought the same Yes side for $35k total during a 77x volume spike.
They paid 53¢ while the market is now around 44¢, offering a cheaper entry than the flagged trade.

$15,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

7-wallet Yes push

Surfacing because this is part of a 7-wallet same-side push on Messi to score, backed by a large pre-event volume spike and a profitable cross-market sports bettor adding exposure.

7 wallets are all buying the same outcome, totaling $35.1K on Messi to score.
This bettor is profitable overall, up $43.3K across $502K invested with a 57% win rate.
Yes has fallen from their 52¢ entry to about 44¢, so the market is currently offering a cheaper copy price.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%

Five-wallet pregame YES surge

Coordinated $240K pregame YES buying with a 240x volume spike and one strong sharp wallet, though most size came from a whale already heavily long with poor P&L.

Five wallets bought $240K of Yes in a tight window before the match.
One participating bettor wins 92% of resolved bets and is up $721K lifetime.
Volume spiked 240x above normal, while entry around 52¢ is still close to current odds.

$98,965 on Yes

83% winning prop bettor

A proven 83% winner with strong lifetime profit is adding to a Yes position on a Messi goals prop, supported by a long history of cross-market sports betting.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $121K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 64 events with $446K in tracked volume.
This is an add to an existing Yes position at 52¢, showing continued conviction.

$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

83% cross-market sharp

Proven profitable cross-market sports bettor with an 83% record is adding to an existing Yes position at 52¢.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $51,847 lifetime.
They have traded 45 related markets across 38 events, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
They are adding to an existing Yes position at 52¢, not just making a one-off bet.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

Elite 91% sports bettor

Elite sports bettor with a 91% win rate and $2.23M profit is buying No on Messi scoring at 48¢ in a relatively small market.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $2.23M lifetime.
They have traded across 204 events with the same 91% hit rate, suggesting a durable sports edge.
Buying No at 48¢ means they are fading Messi scoring despite the market pricing it near a coin flip.

$2,406 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Elite 91% sports bettor

Elite sports bettor with a 91% win rate and $2.23M profit is buying No on Messi scoring at 48¢ in a relatively small market.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $2.23M lifetime.
They have traded across 204 events with the same 91% hit rate, suggesting a durable sports edge.
Buying No at 48¢ means they are fading Messi scoring despite the market pricing it near a coin flip.

$2,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

0x09b4...7320 — Outcome 30161123, $440,000 (62% win rate)
0xf689...9d83 — Outcome 30161123, $49,020 (95% win rate)
0xd3e7...ea94 — Outcome 30161123, $47,317 (76% win rate)
0x85bb...9ada — Outcome 30161123, $28,302 (87% win rate)
0x2149...c8dd — Outcome 30161123, $19,541 (29% win rate)
0x6157...9fb4 — Outcome 30161123, $14,417 (92% win rate)
0x8504...88dc — Outcome 30161123, $10,495 (32% win rate)
0xdd5e...9040 — Outcome 30161123, $10,297 (79% win rate)
0xa04c...9e3f — Outcome 30161123, $10,000 (85% win rate)
0x9786...4c55 — Outcome 30161123, $9,707 (83% win rate)

Related Theses

Whitecaps fail to win

Covers 1 related market

Lionel Messi: 1+ goals

ResolvedArgentina vs. Switzerland - Player Props$153,790 tracked9 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Switzerland, scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi records 1+ goals in the official box score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Own goals do not count. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "50-50". If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not play, the market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.