Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether the U.S. government will officially announce the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers by September 14, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Smart money activity currently leans toward “No,” with recent signals showing sharp buying and winner scaling into the No outcome.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,145.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
94% serial sharp buys No
A highly proven bettor with a 94% win rate and $900,667 profit is adding a $1,015 No position at a price close to the market odds.
- This bettor has won 94% of 1,901 resolved positions and is up $900,667.
- The wallet has traded across 347 events, showing a long-running and unusually consistent edge.
- Bought No at 89¢ while the market prices No at about 88%, reinforcing a strong conviction that the blockade will not end by September 14.
$1,015 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable 93% winner is adding to an existing No position while backing the same direction across five event markets.
- This bettor has won 93% of 54 resolved trades and earned over $101,000.
- They committed $3,130 to No across two purchases, adding to an existing position.
- The wallet has positioned $24,743 across five related markets with a 93% win rate.
$3,130 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0x35bb...009b — Yes, $19,197 (73% win rate)
- 0x41e8...b994 — No, $8,376 (57% win rate)
- 0x4478...02a4 — Yes, $6,658 (59% win rate)
- 0x0def...4ddb — No, $5,500 (99% win rate)
- 0x1b56...715e — No, $5,235 (74% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $5,000 (48% win rate)
- 0x90f7...2501 — Yes, $2,587 (68% win rate)
- 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $2,231 (51% win rate)
- 0x3dce...2e3d — No, $2,230
- 0x122c...fbed — Yes, $2,000 (60% win rate)
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