Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick Hanfmann
This Polymarket covers the Madrid Open match between Francisco Cerundolo and Yannick Hanfmann, scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. The market resolves to the player who advances, with current interest boosted by smart-money activity including signals backing the favorite. If the match is not played, ends in a tie, or is delayed more than 7 days beyond the scheduled date without completion, the market follows its stated resolution rules.
This market refers to the tennis match between Francisco Cerundolo and Yannick Hanfmann in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Cerundolo' if Francisco Cerundolo advances against Yannick Hanfmann. This market will resolve to 'Yannick Hanfmann' if Yannick Hanfmann advances against Francisco Cerundolo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,922.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Profitable new wallet firing again
A 14-day-old wallet with repeated large bets and early profit bought into a strong pre-match volume surge, making this a modest but notable conviction signal despite the small sample track record.
- This 14-day-old wallet has already triggered 15 large-bet alerts and is up $1.1k so far.
- Market activity spiked 44.6x above normal before the match, suggesting real money is positioning here.
- They bought Cerundolo at 86¢, a heavy-favorite price that reflects confidence more than bargain hunting.
$1,815 on Francisco Cerundolo | Wallet win rate: 67%
Proven cross-market sports sharp
A proven high-volume sports bettor with a 74% win rate and $150k profit is buying into a match seeing an unusual pre-event volume surge, making this a credible signal despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor has won 734 of 993 resolved bets and is up $150k overall
- They trade heavily across 228 markets and 143 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off punt
- The market's volume jumped 44.6x versus normal, and they bought Cerundolo at 84¢
$1,076 on Francisco Cerundolo | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable cluster backing favorite
Three wallets piled $14.7k into Cerundolo at 72¢ during a massive volume spike, led by one highly profitable bettor with a 73% win rate and $6.4M in profits.
- One wallet in this cluster wins 73% of 3,501 resolved bets and is up $6.4M lifetime.
- Three wallets bought Cerundolo within minutes of each other, putting $14.7k on the same side.
- They entered at 72¢ and the market is now 77¢, so the move is already going their way.
$14,718 on Francisco Cerundolo
93% win-rate bettor
A bettor with an exceptional 93% win rate and strong edge is backing Francisco Cerundolo at 71¢, making this a credible sharp sports bet despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 93% of their resolved trades and is up $13.3k on $43.9k invested
- Their history is strong for the prices they pay too, beating implied odds by 31% across 206 settled positions
- They bought Cerundolo at 71¢ in a liquid match market, suggesting a straightforward sharp favorite play
$1,312 on Francisco Cerundolo | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0x45e4...7e20 — Yannick Hanfmann, $30,922 (33% win rate)
- 0xcf6c...7e66 — Yannick Hanfmann, $20,086 (80% win rate)
- 0x4900...4a72 — Francisco Cerundolo, $16,860 (86% win rate)
- 0x88d1...18da — Francisco Cerundolo, $13,898 (68% win rate)
- 0xfe78...0319 — Yannick Hanfmann, $10,513 (73% win rate)
- 0x5268...135d — Yannick Hanfmann, $8,148 (4% win rate)
- 0x7690...74e1 — Francisco Cerundolo, $7,098 (80% win rate)
- 0x507e...beae — Yannick Hanfmann, $5,537 (50% win rate)
- 0x204f...5e14 — Francisco Cerundolo, $4,565 (55% win rate)
- 0x99fc...ec26 — Francisco Cerundolo, $4,445 (40% win rate)
