Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Jasmine Paolini
This Polymarket covers the Madrid Open match between Hailey Baptiste and Jasmine Paolini, scheduled for April 25, 2026. Traders are pricing who will advance, with the market resolving to the player who wins the match; if the match is not played, ends without a winner, or is delayed more than 7 days, special cancellation rules apply. PolySpotter also tracks $8,107 in smart money activity on this market, including signals on both the favorite and underdog.
This market refers to the tennis match between Hailey Baptiste and Jasmine Paolini in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hailey Baptiste' if Hailey Baptiste advances against Jasmine Paolini. This market will resolve to 'Jasmine Paolini' if Jasmine Paolini advances against Hailey Baptiste. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $41,681.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor reloading winner
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 73% win rate reopened and scaled into Hailey Baptiste during a major pre-match volume spike, and the price has already moved from 72¢ to 76¢.
- This bettor has won 2,540 of 3,502 resolved trades and is up $6.4M lifetime.
- They bought $8.1k of Hailey Baptiste at 72¢ during a 73.5x volume spike, and the market is now 76¢.
- They previously traded this market successfully and are now opening a much larger fresh position.
$8,107 on Hailey Baptiste | Wallet win rate: 73%
3-wallet momentum cluster
Three active wallets piled into Hailey Baptiste during a huge pre-match volume spike and a 30-point price jump, suggesting strong coordinated momentum worth watching despite mixed wallet quality.
- Three wallets put $12.7k behind Hailey Baptiste as the market volume ran 85x above normal.
- The price jumped about 30 points in a day, showing this buying wave moved the market fast.
- One wallet is up $1.09M lifetime, while the group bought from 50¢ to 80¢ and the market now sits near 72¢.
$12,673 on Hailey Baptiste
Pro bettor flips sides
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 73% win rate flipped from a closed Hailey position into Jasmine at 43¢, suggesting a deliberate new thesis rather than routine position management.
- This bettor has won 2,540 of 3,502 resolved trades and is up $6.4M lifetime
- They closed a $5.7k Hailey position, then opened a fresh Jasmine bet at 43¢
- Jasmine now trades at 28¢, so this entry was much earlier than the current market price
$1,182 on Jasmine Paolini | Wallet win rate: 73%
Sharp cluster buying underdog
Three wallets piled into Hailey Baptiste, led by a serial cross-market bettor with a 73% win rate and $6.4M profit who is reopening exposure after previously trading this market.
- A bettor with a 73% win rate across 3,502 resolved markets and $6.4M profit is the strongest wallet in this 3-wallet cluster.
- The group bought $6.3k of Hailey Baptiste in a few minutes at 45-48¢, a coordinated underdog bet in a major tennis market.
- One wallet is only 8 days old but has already been flagged 23 times for large bets, suggesting aggressive new capital following the same thesis.
$6,309 on Hailey Baptiste
Sharp cluster backing favorite
Three wallets piled into Jasmine Paolini, including a very strong high-volume bettor with a 73% win rate and $6.4M profit, making this coordinated sports flow worth tracking despite one weaker wallet in the cluster.
- A bettor who wins 73% of 3,502 resolved trades and is up $6.4M joined this buy cluster.
- Three wallets bought the same side for $7.5k total, a coordinated push rather than a one-off bet.
- The buys came around 64-74¢, with the market now at 68¢ after a recent 8-point move.
$7,477 on Jasmine Paolini
80% win-rate sports bettor
A very profitable high-volume sports bettor with an 80% win rate and $3.19M P&L bought Jasmine Paolini, making this a credible copy-trade despite the market being reasonably liquid.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $3.19M across 1,315 settled bets
- They trade heavily across 190 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off punt
- Bought Jasmine Paolini at 70¢ with a $3.8k order, a meaningful position in line with their usual winning price range
$3,815 on Jasmine Paolini | Wallet win rate: 80%
Pro sports sharp betting favorite
A highly profitable high-volume sports bettor with a 73% win rate and $6.4M P&L is taking a fresh $2.1k position on Jasmine Paolini, making this worth tracking despite the modest single-trade size.
- This bettor has won 2,540 of 3,502 resolved bets and is up $6.4M lifetime
- They trade heavily across markets and events, suggesting a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
- They bought Jasmine Paolini at 74¢, a clear vote for the favorite even after the market moved down to 70¢
$2,117 on Jasmine Paolini | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xb57a...b8c3 — Hailey Baptiste, $16,470 (75% win rate)
- 0xcf6c...7e66 — Jasmine Paolini, $15,592 (80% win rate)
- 0xc5dc...7cf2 — Hailey Baptiste, $15,555
- 0xfe78...0319 — Hailey Baptiste, $15,137 (73% win rate)
- 0x0e1b...ecaf — Jasmine Paolini, $13,242 (49% win rate)
- 0x2dc8...47d0 — Hailey Baptiste, $12,012
- 0x51e1...5ec9 — Jasmine Paolini, $6,452 (36% win rate)
- 0x507e...beae — Jasmine Paolini, $5,981 (50% win rate)
- 0xba8c...e77d — Hailey Baptiste, $5,631 (91% win rate)
- 0xe193...cc85 — Hailey Baptiste, $5,528 (84% win rate)
