No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

This prediction market tracks whether the Bank of Japan makes no change to its short-term policy rate at the April 28, 2026 monetary policy meeting. It resolves based on the change in basis points to the upper bound of the policy rate versus the level before the meeting, making it a direct way to follow market-implied BOJ rate odds ahead of the decision.

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,743.

Categories: Japan, World, Global Rates, Economic Policy, Economy, interest rates

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor fading spike

A proven 81% win-rate bettor sold Yes at 88¢ into a violent repricing, which translates to buying No at 12¢ after a 50-point move in a major macro market.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $46k overall
  • They sold Yes at 88¢ after the market jumped about 50 points in a day, equivalent to buying No at 12¢
  • The move came in a major Bank of Japan market with $20.7k of 24h volume, so fading this spike is worth watching

$2,743 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $42,440
  2. 0x1d5f...634d Yes, $6,427 (83% win rate)
  3. 0xe196...0ab5 Yes, $5,029
  4. 0x77da...1d7d Yes, $4,582
  5. 0xde04...fa37 No, $4,546 (52% win rate)
  6. 0x444e...31c1 Yes, $4,523
  7. 0x4901...cc02 Yes, $3,578
  8. 0x5b63...11a4 Yes, $3,242 (66% win rate)
  9. 0x88d8...99f0 Yes, $2,920
  10. 0x1236...78be Yes, $2,066

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

13d$2,743 tracked1 signalJapanWorldGlobal RatesEconomic PolicyEconomyinterest rates
Yes
83¢
No
18¢

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Price History — “Yes
88¢
60¢
32¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

4h ago

$2,743 on No at 12¢

12¢18¢6¢

Related Theses

BOJ April 2026 Rate Decision Odds | PolySpotter