What does Over 2.5 rounds mean in the Nascimento vs Raposo market?

Over 2.5 rounds means the fight must continue past 2 minutes and 30 seconds of Round 3. If the bout reaches that point, the Over side resolves Yes.

When does the Nascimento vs Raposo Over/Under market resolve?

This market resolves based on the result of the Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo fight at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott on April 18, 2026, with final resolution expected shortly after the event concludes.

What happens if the fight ends before the middle of Round 3?

If the fight ends before 2:30 of Round 3, the Under 2.5 rounds outcome wins. That includes knockouts, submissions, or any official stoppage before that threshold.

Is there any smart money activity on this Polymarket?

Yes. PolySpotter is tracking limited but notable activity in this market, including one smart money signal and a recent alert tied to a 94% win-rate sharp bettor.

O/U 2.5 Rounds

This Polymarket tracks whether the Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo fight at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott lasts longer than 2.5 rounds. “Over” wins if the bout goes past the 2:30 mark of Round 3, while “Under” wins if it ends before then. The market is set to resolve after the April 18, 2026 event, with smart money activity currently light but notable.

Each market will resolve to “Over” if the fight between Allan Nascimento and Mitch Raposo at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, scheduled for April 18, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to “Under” if the fight between Allan Nascimento and Mitch Raposo at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, scheduled for April 18, 2026, does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: “Over 2.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 3. “Under 2.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 3. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 3 for a 2.5 line), it will resolve “50-50.” If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond May 2, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve “50-50.” The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,387.

Categories: Sports, UFC, Games

Notable Trades

94% win-rate sharp bettor

A highly proven sports bettor with a 94% win rate and $468k profit is taking a fresh position on Under 2.5 rounds at 48¢, making this a strong copy-trade candidate.

This bettor wins 94% of their resolved trades and is up $468k across 1,176 bets.
They have made over $1.06M of cross-market wagers across 641 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off hit.
They bought Under at 48¢ while the market sits near 50/50, implying they see meaningful value below 50¢.

$1,387 on Under | Wallet win rate: 94%