Part of: Portugal vs. Croatia - More Markets
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5
This Polymarket soccer market asks whether Portugal and Croatia will combine for 4 or more goals in their FIFA World Cup match on July 2 at 7:00 PM ET. It resolves to Over if the final combined score is at least 4 goals, and Under if the total is 3 goals or fewer. PolySpotter is tracking $26,588 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including recent Under buying from high-win traders and coordinated Over interest.
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Portugal and Croatia combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $33,391.
Categories: Soccer, FIFA World Cup, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
97% winner buying Under
Sharp sports bettor with a 97% resolved win rate and strong cross-market track record bought Under 3.5 on a high-volume Portugal-Croatia market amid a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor has won 35 of 36 resolved bets and is up $62K lifetime.
- They are a serial sports trader across 62 events with a 97% win rate.
- Bought Under at 69¢ during a 78x pre-game volume spike.
$5,832 on Under | Wallet win rate: 97%
Coordinated Over buyers
Coordinated pre-game buying on Over with a 78x volume spike and one strong early-track-record wallet makes this worth surfacing.
- Three wallets bought $20.8K of Over within 8 minutes, all around 32¢.
- Volume is running 78x above normal ahead of kickoff, and Over is up 4.6% today.
- The largest buyer has won 7 of 8 resolved bets and is up $83K, though the sample is still small.
$20,757 on Over
84% winner on totals
Strong win-rate signal from a bettor with 84% wins across 113 resolved positions, though lifetime P&L is slightly negative and the bet is modest for this liquid market.
- This bettor has won 84% of 113 resolved positions, a strong track record for a sports market.
- They bought Under at 67¢, matching the market favorite but still sizing a $2.3k position.
- The caveat is lifetime P&L is down about $3k, so this is a track-record follow rather than a whale conviction signal.
$2,303 on Under | Wallet win rate: 84%
87% winner buying Under
Sharp sports bettor with an 87% record and positive lifetime P&L bought $4.5k of Under at 67¢.
- This bettor wins 87% of their resolved trades and is up $9.4k lifetime.
- They put $4.5k on Under at 67¢ in a liquid World Cup totals market.
- Their past bets beat implied odds by about 30 percentage points, suggesting real sports edge.
$4,500 on Under | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0x547f...2937 — Under, $107,457 (64% win rate)
- 0x4f12...8140 — Over, $48,662 (88% win rate)
- 0xe907...cff6 — Under, $26,348 (46% win rate)
- 0x224a...a3d5 — Over, $24,565 (62% win rate)
- 0x839e...0d3c — Under, $15,000 (97% win rate)
- 0x204f...5e14 — Over, $14,874 (53% win rate)
- 0xf559...f462 — Under, $14,096 (92% win rate)
- 0x84cf...2f63 — Over, $12,912 (46% win rate)
- 0x4ed4...e181 — Over, $10,947 (54% win rate)
- 0xa984...36d0 — Over, $9,641 (22% win rate)
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