What is the Predict.fun FDV above $200M prediction market?

This market predicts whether Predict.fun’s governance token will reach a fully diluted valuation greater than $200 million one day after launch.

How is Predict.fun’s FDV calculated for this market?

FDV is calculated by multiplying the token’s total supply by its market price at the resolution time.

When does the Predict.fun FDV market resolve?

The market resolves based on the FDV at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the token launches, with a listed resolution date of January 1, 2028.

What counts as a Predict.fun token launch?

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable for it to count as launched under this market’s rules.

What smart money activity has PolySpotter detected?

PolySpotter has tracked $2,456 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including alerts about YES buying, NO buying from profitable wallets, and whale activity.

Part of: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?

This prediction market asks whether Predict.fun’s governance token will have a fully diluted valuation above $200 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after its launch. The market covers the token’s FDV based on total supply multiplied by market price, and PolySpotter is tracking $2,456 in smart money activity with 1 signal so far. The listed resolution date is January 1, 2028, though the outcome depends on the token becoming publicly transferable and tradable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $32,488.

Categories: Crypto, Predict.fun, FDV, Pre-Market

Notable Trades

84% winner buying NO

Sharp wallet with an 84% record is fading the 80% Yes consensus on a quiet Predict.fun FDV market.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $4.4k lifetime.
They sold Yes at 79¢, equivalent to buying No at 21¢ against an 80% market consensus.
The trade was nearly 39x the market’s 24h volume, suggesting strong conviction in a quiet market.

$2,456 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable wallet is adding a cross-market Yes position in a quiet Predict.fun FDV market, with $20k spread across four related markets.

This bettor has won 7 of 8 resolved trades and is up about $38k lifetime.
They have put about $20k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader launch-valuation thesis.
This $1.65k Yes buy landed in a quiet market and was large relative to recent activity.

$1,653 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable wallet bets FDV lower

A profitable high-volume wallet is making a sizable bearish FDV bet across a quiet Predict.fun launch market, with this trade representing more than half of recent volume.

This wallet is up about $149k lifetime despite a low hit rate, suggesting it has won on larger or better-priced bets.
The $6.8k position was over half of recent market volume, a meaningful move in a quiet order book.
The bettor is also active across 3 related Predict.fun markets with about $16.6k positioned.

$6,844 on No | Wallet win rate: 37%

New wallet crypto whale

A 4-day-old wallet made a $3.2k YES bet that nearly matched the market's recent daily volume, suggesting fresh conviction on a quiet crypto launch market despite limited track record.

A 4-day-old wallet put $3.2k on Yes, nearly matching this market’s recent daily volume.
The bet is large for a quiet market, equal to about 93% of the flagged 24h volume.
Entry at 78¢ implies they are backing a high-conviction view on Predict.fun launching above $200M FDV.

$3,237 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 33%

New repeat whale on Yes

A 9-day-old repeat large bettor put $12.9k on Yes in a relatively quiet Predict.fun FDV market, alongside related bets across the same event.

This 9-day-old wallet has already made 21 flagged large bets totaling about $104k.
They bought $12.9k of Yes, large enough to dominate recent quiet-market flow.
The wallet is also betting across 3 related Predict.fun markets, suggesting a broader launch-valuation thesis.

$12,853 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

New linked wallet buying YES

A 13-day-old repeat large bettor bought $5.4k of Yes at 75¢ on a relatively quiet FDV market, with a linked-wallet funding pattern adding conviction.

A 13-day-old wallet put $5.4k on Yes at 75¢, a large bet versus the market’s $8.2k daily volume.
The wallet is already up $2.45k on $10.8k invested, though its resolved history is still very small.
A second wallet shares the same funder, suggesting coordinated conviction behind the Yes position.

$5,445 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%