Part of: S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13?
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13?
This Polymarket market predicts whether the S&P 500 Index (SPX) will open higher or lower on May 13 than its official close on the most recent prior trading day. It resolves on May 13, 2026, based on the official SPX opening price, with $1,775 in smart money tracked and 1 smart money signal currently observed.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on May 13 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on May 13 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,468.
Categories: SPX, Daily, Indicies, Up or Down, Finance, Rewards Automation 500, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
73% serial macro bettor
Serial cross-market bettor with a strong 161-market record is buying Up on the SPX open market, though the entry is on a heavy favorite.
- This bettor has won 73% of 161 resolved trades and is up about $16K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 49 events, suggesting a repeatable macro betting process.
- Entry at 81¢ is on the favored side, so the copy edge depends on their track record rather than a big mispricing.
$1,775 on Up | Wallet win rate: 73%
Serial macro bettor
Serial cross-market trader with 161 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L is buying SPX Up at 83% in a relatively small daily market.
- This bettor has a long track record: 161 resolved bets with 73% wins and about $16k profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 48 events with $155k traded in this pattern.
- The $1.7k buy is meaningful versus this market’s $5.5k liquidity, and entry at 83¢ shows strong confidence in an Up open.
$1,693 on Up | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xd01f...ce7a — Down, $7,278 (46% win rate)
- 0x9da0...523c — Up, $5,158 (73% win rate)
- 0x0e10...81ae — Up, $4,579
- 0xe6d8...9d21 — Up, $2,376
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Down, $2,040 (47% win rate)
- 0x24cc...3947 — Down, $1,779
- 0xebe6...9278 — Down, $1,583
- 0xf4bf...23f6 — Down, $1,334
- 0x3bbd...508d — Down, $1,318
- 0x8c31...ac64 — Up, $1,203
