What does the Padres vs. Marlins prediction market cover?

The market covers the winner of the upcoming San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins MLB game. It resolves to the Padres or Marlins based on the official game result.

When is the Padres vs. Marlins game scheduled?

The game is scheduled for July 26 at 1:40 p.m. ET.

How does the Padres vs. Marlins Polymarket resolve if the game is postponed?

If the game is postponed, the market remains open until the game is completed. If it is canceled without a makeup game, or ends in a tie, the market resolves 50-50.

What smart-money activity has the market recorded?

The market has tracked $58,279 in smart-money activity across two signals. Recent alerts include traders scaling into both the Padres and Marlins.

When will the market resolve?

The market is expected to resolve after the game is completed, with the listed resolution date of August 2, 2026 at 5:40 p.m. UTC.

Part of: San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins

This prediction market tracks whether the San Diego Padres or Miami Marlins win their upcoming MLB game on July 26 at 1:40 p.m. ET. The market has recorded $58,279 in smart-money activity across two signals, with traders taking positions on both teams; it resolves after the game is completed.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $87,877.

Categories: Sports, Games, MLB, baseball

Notable Trades

Serial trader scaling into Miami

A serial cross-market trader added $27.7K to an existing Marlins position as the market moved sharply toward Miami, though the wallet's 60% win rate offers only modest evidence of edge.

This wallet has traded across 684 events and is up $657,601 lifetime on more than $8.6M invested.
It added $27,735 to an existing Miami position while Miami's odds rose roughly 20 percentage points.
The 60% win rate is respectable but only modestly above the wallet's typical 58¢ winning entry price.

$30,544 on Miami Marlins | Wallet win rate: 60%

Serial trader scaling into Miami

A serial cross-market trader added $27.7K to an existing Marlins position as the market moved sharply toward Miami, though the wallet's 60% win rate offers only modest evidence of edge.

This wallet has traded across 684 events and is up $657,601 lifetime on more than $8.6M invested.
It added $27,735 to an existing Miami position while Miami's odds rose roughly 20 percentage points.
The 60% win rate is respectable but only modestly above the wallet's typical 58¢ winning entry price.

$27,735 on Miami Marlins | Wallet win rate: 60%

98% winner scaling into Padres

An exceptionally profitable serial bettor with a 98% win rate added substantially to an existing Padres position despite the market falling to 36%.

This bettor has won 100 of 102 trades, is up $764,259, and typically buys at an average 44% price.
They added $7,359 to an existing $16,000 Padres position at 50%, showing continued conviction after the market fell to 36%.
The wallet has traded across 74 events and 79 markets, providing a substantial record behind this position.

$7,359 on San Diego Padres | Wallet win rate: 97%

93% win-rate bettor adds to Padres

A highly profitable bettor with a 93% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $20,700 to an existing Padres position at 46 cents.

This bettor wins 93% of 336 resolved positions and is up $2.06 million.
They are scaling into the Padres at 46¢ despite already holding $45,000 at the same average entry.
The 46¢ price is below the market's 54% implied chance for Miami, offering substantial upside if the bettor's edge is real.

$1,540 on San Diego Padres | Wallet win rate: 93%

93% win-rate bettor adds to Padres

A highly profitable bettor with a 93% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $20,700 to an existing Padres position at 46 cents.

This bettor wins 93% of 336 resolved positions and is up $2.06 million.
They are scaling into the Padres at 46¢ despite already holding $45,000 at the same average entry.
The 46¢ price is below the market's 54% implied chance for Miami, offering substantial upside if the bettor's edge is real.

$20,700 on San Diego Padres | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

0x1e77...8c33 — Outcome 22507767, $80,000 (81% win rate)
0xa080...234f — Outcome 22507767, $60,066 (50% win rate)
0x26b4...b8a9 — Outcome 22507767, $49,587 (60% win rate)
0xa084...bb99 — Outcome 12783781, $16,000 (97% win rate)
0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 22507767, $14,500 (63% win rate)
0xb272...5030 — Outcome 22507767, $10,000 (41% win rate)
0xd104...acef — Outcome 22507767, $10,000 (85% win rate)
0xc3c3...eec8 — Outcome 22507767, $7,500 (99% win rate)
0x9015...281f — Outcome 22507767, $5,289 (70% win rate)
0xc463...9a2f — Outcome 22507767, $5,275 (55% win rate)

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San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins

5dSan Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins$87,877 tracked5 signalsSportsGamesMLBbaseball

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 26 at 1:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

53-53

Final

MIA

52-54

SD -104MIA -115O/U 8.5

Venue

loanDepot park, Miami

Attendance

21,675

Price History — “San Diego Padres”

102¢

69¢