Part of: San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 26 at 1:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $87,877.

Categories: Sports, Games, MLB, baseball

Notable Trades

Serial trader scaling into Miami

A serial cross-market trader added $27.7K to an existing Marlins position as the market moved sharply toward Miami, though the wallet's 60% win rate offers only modest evidence of edge.

  • This wallet has traded across 684 events and is up $657,601 lifetime on more than $8.6M invested.
  • It added $27,735 to an existing Miami position while Miami's odds rose roughly 20 percentage points.
  • The 60% win rate is respectable but only modestly above the wallet's typical 58¢ winning entry price.

$30,544 on Miami Marlins | Wallet win rate: 72%

Serial trader scaling into Miami

A serial cross-market trader added $27.7K to an existing Marlins position as the market moved sharply toward Miami, though the wallet's 60% win rate offers only modest evidence of edge.

  • This wallet has traded across 684 events and is up $657,601 lifetime on more than $8.6M invested.
  • It added $27,735 to an existing Miami position while Miami's odds rose roughly 20 percentage points.
  • The 60% win rate is respectable but only modestly above the wallet's typical 58¢ winning entry price.

$27,735 on Miami Marlins | Wallet win rate: 72%

98% winner scaling into Padres

An exceptionally profitable serial bettor with a 98% win rate added substantially to an existing Padres position despite the market falling to 36%.

  • This bettor has won 100 of 102 trades, is up $764,259, and typically buys at an average 44% price.
  • They added $7,359 to an existing $16,000 Padres position at 50%, showing continued conviction after the market fell to 36%.
  • The wallet has traded across 74 events and 79 markets, providing a substantial record behind this position.

$7,359 on San Diego Padres | Wallet win rate: 91%

93% win-rate bettor adds to Padres

A highly profitable bettor with a 93% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $20,700 to an existing Padres position at 46 cents.

  • This bettor wins 93% of 336 resolved positions and is up $2.06 million.
  • They are scaling into the Padres at 46¢ despite already holding $45,000 at the same average entry.
  • The 46¢ price is below the market's 54% implied chance for Miami, offering substantial upside if the bettor's edge is real.

$1,540 on San Diego Padres | Wallet win rate: 95%

93% win-rate bettor adds to Padres

A highly profitable bettor with a 93% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $20,700 to an existing Padres position at 46 cents.

  • This bettor wins 93% of 336 resolved positions and is up $2.06 million.
  • They are scaling into the Padres at 46¢ despite already holding $45,000 at the same average entry.
  • The 46¢ price is below the market's 54% implied chance for Miami, offering substantial upside if the bettor's edge is real.

$20,700 on San Diego Padres | Wallet win rate: 95%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1e77...8c33 — Miami Marlins, $80,000 (83% win rate)
  2. 0xfe78...0319 — Miami Marlins, $14,500 (64% win rate)
  3. 0xd104...acef — Miami Marlins, $10,000 (88% win rate)
  4. 0xc3c3...eec8 — Miami Marlins, $7,500 (99% win rate)
  5. 0x9015...281f — Miami Marlins, $5,289 (82% win rate)
  6. 0xc463...9a2f — Miami Marlins, $5,275 (55% win rate)
  7. 0x2ca1...ddcd — Miami Marlins, $5,002 (44% win rate)
  8. 0x5811...0976 — Miami Marlins, $2,340 (45% win rate)
  9. 0xa3c2...df3d — Miami Marlins, $1,116
  10. 0x05e1...85a2 — Miami Marlins, $909 (81% win rate)

Related Theses

Dodgers beat Braves in high-scoring game

Covers 3 related markets

Marlins win, runs stay low

Covers 3 related markets

Yankees win in a high-scoring game

Covers 3 related markets

Tigers win a high-scoring game

Covers 3 related markets

Brewers win in a high-scoring game

Covers 3 related markets

Diamondbacks win in a low-scoring game

Covers 3 related markets

Tigers win a low-scoring game

Covers 3 related markets

Panthers keep it close

Covers 3 related markets

NATO and Russia avoid clash

Covers 3 related markets

Rays win, total not eight

Covers 3 related markets

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins$87,877 tracked5 signalsSportsGamesMLBbaseball
San Diego Padres
100¢
Miami Marlins
0¢

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 26 at 1:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

SD
5
53-53
Final
MIA
3
52-54
SD -104MIA -115O/U 8.5Polymarket: 100¢
Venue
loanDepot park, Miami
Attendance
21,675

Notable Trades

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins

2026-07-26 18:35 UTC

$30,544 on Miami Marlins at 62¢

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins

2026-07-26 18:29 UTC

$27,735 on Miami Marlins at 62¢

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins

2026-07-26 18:23 UTC

$7,359 on San Diego Padres at 50¢

50¢→100¢↑50¢

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins

2026-07-26 16:36 UTC

$1,540 on San Diego Padres at 46¢

46¢→100¢↑54¢

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins

2026-07-26 15:34 UTC

$20,700 on San Diego Padres at 46¢

46¢→100¢↑54¢

Related Theses

Dodgers beat Braves in high-scoring game
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Marlins win, runs stay low
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Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati R…Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati R…Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati R…
Yankees win in a high-scoring game
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Will there be a run scored in …Seattle Mariners vs. New York …Seattle Mariners vs. New York …
Tigers win a high-scoring game
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroi…Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroi…Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroi…
Brewers win in a high-scoring game
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Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee B…Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee B…Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee B…
Diamondbacks win in a low-scoring game
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Di…Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Di…Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (…
Tigers win a low-scoring game
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Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-…Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland G…Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland G…
Panthers keep it close
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Spread: Bears (-4.5)Spread: Bears (-2.5)Spread: Bears (-3.5)
NATO and Russia avoid clash
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NATO x Russia military clash b…NATO x Russia military clash b…NATO x Russia military clash b…
Rays win, total not eight
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red …Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red …Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red …