Santa Cruz: Valerio Aboian vs Thiago Seyboth Wild
This Polymarket tracks the Santa Cruz tennis match between Valerio Aboian and Thiago Seyboth Wild, originally scheduled for April 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. The market resolves to the player who advances, with cancellation or a delay beyond 7 days leading to different resolution terms under the market rules. Current smart money activity tracked by PolySpotter totals $2,191 across 1 signal, with recent alerts including funded wallet clusters and a sharp trader flipping sides.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,221.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
15-wallet funded cluster
A wallet from a 15-wallet linked cluster bought Aboian before a sharp late move to 100%, combining coordinated flow, a major volume spike, and immediate price confirmation.
- 15 linked wallets share the same funder, suggesting one actor is spreading this thesis across accounts.
- This wallet has a huge sample size with 3,297 resolved bets and is up about $160k lifetime.
- Bought Valerio at 78¢ before a 19-point jump to 100% in under 4 minutes, with market volume running 60x normal.
$2,191 on Valerio Aboian | Wallet win rate: 55%
4-wallet funded cluster
Four linked wallets piled into Thiago Seyboth Wild, and two of the wallets show strong long-run profitability, making this coordinated sports bet worth watching despite mixed cluster flow on both sides.
- Four wallets tied to the same funder bought Thiago Seyboth Wild for $13.3k total, a strong coordinated bet.
- Two wallets in the group have solid track records, including one bettor winning 72% of 465 resolved markets and another up $1.5M lifetime.
- They built most of the position between 44¢ and 58¢, while the market now sits around 54¢.
$13,304 on Thiago Seyboth Wild
Sharp trader flips sides
A highly profitable cross-market trader with a 72% win rate flipped from an earlier Thiago position into Valerio at 20¢, suggesting a deliberate contrarian re-entry rather than routine whale flow.
- This bettor has won 1,806 of 2,492 resolved trades and is up $4.6M lifetime
- They bought Valerio at 20¢ and the market is already at 26¢, a quick move in their favor
- This wallet trades across hundreds of events, so a fresh side-switch after closing Thiago looks like an intentional new view
$2,725 on Valerio Aboian | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xd218...b5c9 — Outcome 47398034, $18,991 (48% win rate)
- 0x8d87...8dbb — Outcome 47398034, $2,557
- 0x1e71...eba7 — Outcome 47398034, $2,268 (16% win rate)
- 0x8f76...aea6 — Outcome 47398034, $1,684 (73% win rate)
- 0xf02f...1ed8 — Outcome 47398034, $1,246 (71% win rate)
- 0xc0c6...b50b — Outcome 84495062, $1,175
- 0x065d...f0f1 — Outcome 47398034, $1,169 (63% win rate)
- 0x95bd...b9be — Outcome 47398034, $986
- 0x1c8c...dc9e — Outcome 47398034, $980 (41% win rate)
- 0x661d...4dc6 — Outcome 47398034, $933
