Part of: Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen

Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5)

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,376.

Notable Trades

Proven trader fades favorite

A proven cross-market sports bettor with a 71% win rate sold Alcaraz at 65%, which translates to a buyable Virtanen position at 35% in a moderately thin market.

This bettor wins 71% of their trades across 110 resolved markets and is up nearly $15k
They sold Alcaraz at 65¢, which is equivalent to buying Virtanen around 35¢
The bet was large for this order book, with about $2.8k traded into a market with only $4.3k of liquidity

$2,838 on Virtanen | Wallet win rate: 70%

High-hit-rate thin-market buyer

A high-volume tennis regular with an 83% hit rate made a $3.2k concentrated buy that was over 20x the market’s prior 24h volume, a meaningful conviction signal in a thin market.

This bettor wins 83% of 924 resolved trades, showing a strong history even if their average prices are high.
They put $3.2k into Alcaraz at 81¢, more than 20x the market's prior 24h volume of $138.
The market is still fairly thin, so this size likely reflects real conviction rather than routine flow.

$3,219 on Alcaraz | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp bettor in thin market

A proven cross-market sports bettor with 110 resolved bets and a 71% win rate made a $3.3k buy that dwarfed this market’s daily volume, signaling conviction in a very quiet market.

This bettor has a 71% win rate across 110 resolved trades and is up about $14.8k.
The $3.3k buy was 24x this market’s entire 24-hour volume, showing unusual conviction.
They trade this kind of event repeatedly across 32 markets, so this looks like a deliberate thesis rather than a random punt.

$3,319 on Alcaraz | Wallet win rate: 70%

Top Holders

0x9c76...c926 — Outcome 65084328, $1,096 (90% win rate)
0x449f...f386 — Outcome 65084328, $100
0xa0c5...4291 — Outcome 65084328, $22
0x9b4a...e2bf — Outcome 65084328, $12
0xe0ec...93c1 — Outcome 65084328, $5
0xd7a4...24f3 — Outcome 65084328, $4
0xd78e...6421 — Outcome 65084328, $4
0x9bd9...084f — Outcome 43586056, $2

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5)

ResolvedBarcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen$9,376 tracked3 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Otto Virtanen in the Barcelona Open, scheduled for April 14 2026. This market will resolve to "Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 2 or more sets than Otto Virtanen, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Virtanen." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.