Part of: US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz

Shelton vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 38.5

This Polymarket tennis market forecasts whether the Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz US Open match will reach at least 39 total games. The market currently shows smart-money interest in Over, including an 84% winner-backed Over signal, and resolves after the match is completed, no later than September 15, 2026.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,513.

Categories: Sports, Games, Tennis

Notable Trades

84% winner backs Over

A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and substantial edge is making a fresh $2,260 bet on Over at 54%.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 673 resolved trades and earned $372,370 in profit.
  • The $2,260 Over bet is unusually large relative to the market’s recent activity, signaling strong conviction.
  • The trader has positioned across 274 markets and 211 events, making this more than an isolated wager.

$4,832 on Over | Wallet win rate: 85%

84% winner backs Over

A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and substantial edge is making a fresh $2,260 bet on Over at 54%.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 673 resolved trades and earned $372,370 in profit.
  • The $2,260 Over bet is unusually large relative to the market’s recent activity, signaling strong conviction.
  • The trader has positioned across 274 markets and 211 events, making this more than an isolated wager.

$2,260 on Over | Wallet win rate: 85%

Sharp bettor scales into Over

A profitable bettor with an 80% win rate and strong historical edge added $1,250 to Over in an exceptionally thin market.

  • This bettor has won 80% of 10 resolved trades and is up $9,307 overall.
  • The $1,250 purchase was more than 76 times the market’s 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in Over 38.5.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing Over position at 54¢, though the small track record warrants measured sizing.

$1,171 on Over | Wallet win rate: 61%

Sharp bettor scales into Over

A profitable bettor with an 80% win rate and strong historical edge added $1,250 to Over in an exceptionally thin market.

  • This bettor has won 80% of 10 resolved trades and is up $9,307 overall.
  • The $1,250 purchase was more than 76 times the market’s 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in Over 38.5.
  • The wallet is adding to an existing Over position at 54¢, though the small track record warrants measured sizing.

$1,250 on Over | Wallet win rate: 61%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9f15...bdb3 Outcome 10253133, $25,797 (79% win rate)
  2. 0x559b...4959 Outcome 10253133, $20,000 (68% win rate)
  3. 0x21f3...35e3 Outcome 10253133, $5,113 (74% win rate)
  4. 0xd871...6bba Outcome 10253133, $2,220 (89% win rate)
  5. 0x7547...d158 Outcome 10253133, $600
  6. 0x5e30...acbf Outcome 10253133, $488 (81% win rate)
  7. 0x16cf...a2fb Outcome 10253133, $109
  8. 0x2810...a1a8 Outcome 10253133, $100
  9. 0x1dd2...9e07 Outcome 10253133, $64
  10. 0xf59e...5525 Outcome 10253133, $51

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Shelton vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 38.5

3dUS Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz$9,513 tracked4 signalsSportsGamesTennis

This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 39. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by September 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official Grand Slam statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Over
55¢
52¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Shelton vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 38.5

2d ago

$4,832 on Over at 54¢

Shelton vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 38.5

2d ago

$2,260 on Over at 54¢

Shelton vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 38.5

2d ago

$1,171 on Over at 54¢

Shelton vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 38.5

4d ago

$1,250 on Over at 54¢

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