Part of: Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 13?
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 13?
This Polymarket market predicts whether Silver (XAGUSD) will close higher or lower on May 13, 2026 compared with its most recent prior trading day close. It resolves at 21:00 UTC on May 13, 2026, based on the official close price comparison. PolySpotter is tracking $3,676 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including alerts from high-win-rate macro and serial market bettors.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on May 13, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on May 13, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Silver Futures (SI) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAG%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,883.
Categories: Finance, Commodities, Daily, Up or Down, Daily-Close, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Silver, Rewards Automation 200 4.5 50
Notable Trades
88% winning serial trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Down at 46¢ after previously closing an Up position.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $171K lifetime.
- They are a major serial cross-market trader, with $4.8M bet across 239 markets.
- They bought Down at 46¢ after closing an Up position, suggesting a fresh flip in view.
$1,367 on Down | Wallet win rate: 88%
88% winner flips Down
Surfaced because this is a proven 88% winner with positive lifetime P&L flipping from Up to Down in a relatively thin silver market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $171K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with 155 events and $4.8M in tracked volume.
- They closed an Up position and added Down at 46¢, a clear directional flip in a thin market.
$2,570 on Down | Wallet win rate: 88%
88% winner fades Up
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate is exiting/selling Up on a thin daily silver market, effectively favoring Down despite small size.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $171.6K lifetime.
- They are a heavy cross-market trader, active across 155 events and $4.8M in volume.
- Selling Up at 60¢ is equivalent to buying Down at 40¢, better than the current 44¢ market price.
$1,203 on Down | Wallet win rate: 88%
88% serial macro trader
Serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is actively trading this thin silver daily market, though the mixed buy/sell flow weakens directional conviction.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved bets and is up $171,688 lifetime.
- They are a major serial cross-market trader, with activity across 155 events and $4.8M traded.
- The market is thin, with this $2,473 activity large versus about $5,312 total volume.
$2,473 on Up | Wallet win rate: 88%
88% serial market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Up in a thin silver daily market.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $171,688 lifetime.
- They are a high-volume cross-market trader, active across 238 markets with $4.8M total bet.
- This $1,270 buy was nearly a full day of prior volume, signaling conviction in a thin market.
$1,270 on Up | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0x4060...3ec3 — Down, $3,004 (88% win rate)
- 0x2651...3471 — Up, $2,195
- 0xa540...0b43 — Up, $485 (40% win rate)
- 0x7e80...631b — Up, $304
- 0x508d...791a — Up, $114
- 0xa3e2...fdf8 — Down, $61
- 0xe0d1...82b1 — Down, $50
- 0xdd45...a81d — Up, $7
- 0x1fcc...701b — Up, $7
- 0xca0c...b9b6 — Up, $5
Related Theses
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