Part of: Sion: Luca Staeheli vs Juan Manuel La Serna
Sion: Luca Staeheli vs Juan Manuel La Serna
This prediction market covers the Sion tennis match between Luca Staeheli and Juan Manuel La Serna, scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. It resolves to the player who advances, with the market scheduled to resolve by August 26, 2026; current smart-money activity includes multiple signals favoring La Serna.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,194.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Eight-wallet tennis consensus
Eight wallets committed $34.7K to Juan Manuel La Serna, driving the outcome from roughly 74% to 100%, with one participant showing an unusually strong 87% win rate at a 60% average winning price.
- Eight wallets bought Juan Manuel La Serna for a combined $34,726, creating a strong one-sided signal.
- The coordinated buying drove La Serna’s implied probability up 25.7 percentage points to 100%.
- One participating bettor wins 87% of 67 resolved bets while typically winning at just 60% entry odds.
$34,726 on Juan Manuel La Serna
87% winner fades the favorite
A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with an 87% win rate took a contrarian position against the 84% favorite, making this a credible directional signal.
- This bettor has won 87% of 685 resolved trades and is up $72,036 lifetime.
- They sold Juan Manuel La Serna at 80¢ despite the market pricing him at 84%, implying a bullish view on Luca Staeheli.
- The trader has positioned across 56 events, providing substantially stronger evidence than a one-off bet.
$1,380 on Luca Staeheli | Wallet win rate: 87%
Sharp bettor adds to La Serna
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is adding $2,030 to an existing Juan Manuel La Serna position despite thin recent volume.
- This bettor wins 86% of 64 resolved trades and is up $30,899 lifetime.
- They are adding $2,030 to an existing La Serna position in a market with only $157 of recent volume.
- The trader has placed positions across 26 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market process rather than a one-off bet.
$1,058 on Juan Manuel La Serna | Wallet win rate: 51%
Sharp bettor adds to La Serna
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is adding $2,030 to an existing Juan Manuel La Serna position despite thin recent volume.
- This bettor wins 86% of 64 resolved trades and is up $30,899 lifetime.
- They are adding $2,030 to an existing La Serna position in a market with only $157 of recent volume.
- The trader has placed positions across 26 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market process rather than a one-off bet.
$2,030 on Juan Manuel La Serna | Wallet win rate: 51%
Top Holders
- 0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 14031070, $30,663 (64% win rate)
- 0x13f7...85d5 — Outcome 14031070, $1,905 (52% win rate)
- 0x160b...4296 — Outcome 14031070, $1,251 (78% win rate)
- 0x8dae...125c — Outcome 14031070, $800
- 0x7547...d158 — Outcome 14031070, $600
- 0xd238...ad4d — Outcome 14031070, $556
- 0xdbdd...a5de — Outcome 14031070, $336 (59% win rate)
- 0xdb83...1e50 — Outcome 14031070, $311 (63% win rate)
- 0x5803...3f3f — Outcome 14031070, $286
- 0x125a...df71 — Outcome 14031070, $253
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