Part of: Spain vs. Argentina - More Markets

Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,352.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Perfect-record bettor scaling into Yes

A highly successful bettor with 69 straight wins and a 44-point edge added heavily to Yes alongside three other wallets despite the market later falling to zero.

  • This bettor has won 69 of 69 resolved positions, earning $188,780 while buying at an average 56% price.
  • They committed another $9,000 to Yes at 64¢, adding to an existing $14,057 Yes position.
  • Four wallets bought Yes for $16,478 total, while the trader has maintained a 100% record across 91 events.

$9,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

12-wallet Yes betting cluster

A 12-wallet, $38.5K one-sided Yes cluster and extreme volume spike make this worth monitoring despite the individual wallet's only moderate record and contrary price movement.

  • Twelve wallets bought Yes for a combined $38,516, creating a strong coordinated position on a rare shootout outcome.
  • Trading volume was 95 times its historical average, with 28 trades concentrated around the alert.
  • The featured wallet has a 61% win rate across 493 resolved bets, but its prior No position was closed at a loss, so the cluster is more compelling than the individual bettor.

$1,727 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%

12-wallet coordinated Yes cluster

A 12-wallet one-sided Yes cluster and 95x volume spike show notable coordinated conviction, though the trader has only a limited proven track record and the position is currently deeply underwater.

  • Twelve wallets bought Yes for a combined $38,516 during a 95x volume spike.
  • This wallet has placed seven positions and is up $17,306 overall, while adding to an existing Yes position.
  • The $2,000 entry at 45¢ now trades near 12¢, making this a high-risk contrarian signal rather than a validated winning trade.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Sharp bettors scaling into No

A 13-wallet No cluster includes multiple highly profitable bettors and coincided with a sharp move toward No, although opposing Yes activity makes the signal less one-sided than it first appears.

  • Thirteen wallets bought No for $26,402 as its price rose to 88%.
  • Several participants have exceptional records, including 92% win rates across 566 and 49 resolved positions.
  • The market saw a 95x volume spike, but substantial opposing Yes activity means the apparent consensus should be treated cautiously.

$15,626 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x088b...21cc Outcome 99237176, $20,000 (44% win rate)
  2. 0xb56d...d621 Outcome 99237176, $14,057 (100% win rate)
  3. 0xb014...a357 Outcome 99237176, $10,000 (67% win rate)
  4. 0x9c98...f4f4 Outcome 99237176, $6,000 (93% win rate)
  5. 0x032e...2a9e Outcome 99237176, $5,677 (68% win rate)
  6. 0x58a3...5336 Outcome 99237176, $5,000 (100% win rate)
  7. 0x77dc...fb03 Outcome 99237176, $4,848 (87% win rate)
  8. 0x5630...de7f Outcome 99237176, $4,762 (100% win rate)
  9. 0x189f...4701 Outcome 99237176, $4,406 (67% win rate)
  10. 0x425b...18f1 Outcome 99237176, $4,362 (53% win rate)

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Spain advance after high-scoring shootout

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Algeria Austria over 1.5 goals

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Ronaldo scores at least once

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Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?

ResolvedSpain vs. Argentina - More Markets$28,352 tracked4 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup match between Spain and Argentina, scheduled for July 19 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the match goes to a penalty shootout. This market will resolve to "No" if the match is completed without going to a penalty shootout. For the purposes of this market, a match goes to a penalty shootout if play concludes in a draw after extra time plus stoppage time for that match. If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is abandoned before a penalty shootout is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Price History — “No
101¢
87¢
73¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?

1d ago

$9,000 on Yes at 64¢

Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?

1d ago

$1,727 on Yes at 43¢

Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?

1d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 45¢

Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?

1d ago

$15,626 on No at 42¢

Related Theses