Part of: France vs. Iraq - More Markets

Spread: France (-3.5)

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 22 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "France" if France win the game by 4 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Iraq". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $146,195.

Categories: Sports, FIFA World Cup, Games, Soccer

Notable Trades

Profitable trader joins France cluster

Profitable serial sports trader exited Iraq as part of a broader clustered move into France, with strong one-sided flow and major price movement.

This bettor is up $69K across 449 resolved trades and has a 74% win rate.
Seven wallets took the France side in the same window, totaling $20K, with two linked by funding.
The effective France entry was 30¢ before the market moved to 58¢, so this is only attractive near the original price.

$2,430 on France | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable cross-market whale

A profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broad anti-France-spread thesis across three related markets, though this specific trade also looks like reducing a prior France position.

This wallet is up about $200k lifetime across 439 resolved bets.
They have placed $125k across three markets in this same event, pointing to a broader Iraq/anti-France thesis.
Selling France at 16¢ converts to backing Iraq at 84¢ on the spread.

$15,002 on Iraq | Wallet win rate: 62%

91% winner backs underdog spread

Sharp 91% winner is buying Iraq +3.5 alongside one-sided flow and a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved positions across 23 markets, with entries around 51¢ on average.
They are a serial cross-market sports trader, active across 31 events and $1.69M in tracked volume.
Three wallets bought the same Iraq side for $58.9K as market volume spiked 246x above normal.

$25,606 on Iraq | Wallet win rate: 61%

Coordinated sharp spread buy

Four wallets bought $36.5k of Iraq +3.5 into a pre-event volume spike, including profitable serial cross-market traders with large sports history.

Four wallets bought $36.5k on the same side, nearly matching the market’s available liquidity.
Two serial cross-market bettors joined, including one up $2.3M lifetime and another winning 74% of resolved bets.
The market saw a 15x volume spike ahead of the game, suggesting a concentrated shift toward Iraq +3.5.

$36,535 on Iraq

Sharp bettor joins France cluster

Surface: a high-scoring France spread buy cluster includes a 92% winning bettor, coordinated one-sided flow, and a major pre-event volume spike.

One bettor in the cluster wins 92% of resolved bets and is up $4.5K lifetime.
Three wallets bought $26K of France -3.5 at 36–37¢ in a tight window.
Market volume is surging 58x above normal, with this flow aligned across related markets.

$14,872 on France

Profitable serial sports sharp

Sharp serial sports bettor with a 76% win rate and $1.84M lifetime profit bought France -3.5 at 35¢.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $1.84M lifetime.
They have traded 277 markets across 190 events, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
Entry at 35¢ implies they see France covering by 4+ as a mispriced underdog side.

$1,750 on France | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable serial sports whale

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 75% resolved win rate and $1.68M lifetime profit put $50k on France to cover the spread.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved bets and is up $1.68M lifetime.
They put $50k on France to cover, about 94% of the market’s 24h volume.
This wallet has traded 415 events across 472 markets, so the track record is the main signal.

$50,000 on France | Wallet win rate: 88%