Part of: Germany vs. Paraguay - More Markets

Spread: Germany (-1.5)

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Germany" if Germany win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Paraguay". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

35 smart money signals detected, totaling $393,121.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

$60K anti-Germany thesis

A single wallet is pushing a $60k cross-market Germany fade thesis, with Paraguay +1.5 rising sharply alongside a major volume spike despite the wallet lacking a strong long-term record.

This bettor put about $60k across 3 related markets, backing Paraguay +1.5 and the under.
Paraguay +1.5 jumped 28 percentage points as volume ran 24x above normal.
This is a momentum and conviction signal, not a proven sharp-wallet signal; the wallet is down lifetime.

$36,919 on Paraguay | Wallet win rate: 58%

Profitable sharp in 12-wallet cluster

A highly profitable sports bettor with a 78% win rate is buying Germany alongside a 12-wallet same-direction cluster, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the price moving lower after entry.

This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $370K lifetime.
12 wallets are all buying Germany, totaling $27K in same-direction flow.
The bettor paid 48¢ while the market is now around 40¢, offering a better price than their entry.

$1,142 on Germany | Wallet win rate: 47%

Perfect-record Germany cluster

A perfect-record sports bettor joined a 12-wallet one-sided Germany buy cluster, creating a strong copy-trade signal despite the price moving against their 48¢ entry.

This bettor has won 25 of 25 resolved bets and is up $9.8k lifetime.
12 wallets are all buying Germany, with $27.2k flowing the same way.
They entered at 48¢ while the market is now around 40¢, offering a cheaper copy entry than the original trade.

$1,500 on Germany | Wallet win rate: 98%

89% winner joins Germany cluster

Elite sports bettor with an 89% resolved win rate is buying Germany alongside a large 18-wallet one-sided cluster and heavy pre-event volume.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets and is up $1.54M lifetime.
18 wallets are all buying Germany, totaling $125.6K on the same side.
The bettor is a serial cross-market sports trader with $3.55M tracked across 279 events.

$2,000 on Germany | Wallet win rate: 87%

18-wallet one-sided cluster

Surface for coordinated one-sided flow: 18 wallets bought Germany for $125.6k with linked funding, despite this specific wallet having a poor long-term record.

18 wallets are all buying Germany, totaling $125.6k on the same side.
Four of those wallets share funding, suggesting one coordinated actor is pushing this view.
Volume is spiking sharply before the match, with this market trading far above its normal pace.

$2,323 on Germany | Wallet win rate: 48%

18-wallet Germany buy wave

High-conviction coordinated Germany flow: 18 wallets bought the same side for $125.6k, including 4 linked wallets sharing a funder, alongside a profitable repeat bettor.

18 wallets are all buying Germany, totaling $125.6k on the same side.
4 of those wallets share the same funder, suggesting one actor is deploying capital across accounts.
This wallet is up $9.9k and has won 7 of 9 resolved bets so far.

$2,551 on Germany | Wallet win rate: 79%

Elite sharp joins 11-wallet flow

Elite profitable wallet with a 92% resolved win rate is buying Paraguay, alongside 11-wallet one-sided flow and a major pre-game volume spike.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $716K lifetime.
11 wallets are all buying Paraguay, totaling $133K in the same direction.
Market volume is spiking 18.5x before kickoff, matching the one-sided Paraguay move.

$2,000 on Paraguay | Wallet win rate: 92%

Sharp bettor joins 11-wallet flow

Sharp 87% lifetime winner is buying Paraguay alongside heavy one-sided flow from 11 wallets on a very liquid World Cup spread market.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $118K lifetime.
11 wallets bought the same side, totaling $133K on Paraguay.
The wallet is a serial sports trader across 149 events with the same 87% hit rate.

$1,989 on Paraguay | Wallet win rate: 91%

78% serial sports sharp

Sharp serial sports trader with a 78% win rate bought Paraguay +1.5 during a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets across 73 markets and is up $18K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.82M in prior volume across 58 events.
Paraguay +1.5 was bought at 54¢ as market activity spiked 35x above normal.

$26,000 on Paraguay | Wallet win rate: 91%

91% sports sharp buying dog

Surface because this is a proven sharp sports wallet with a 91% win rate and strong lifetime profit buying Paraguay, reinforced by serial cross-market success and a large linked-wallet cluster.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up about $95k lifetime.
They have a strong cross-market record across 41 events, with the same 91% win rate.
A 17-wallet funded cluster is associated with this flow, adding conviction behind the Paraguay side.

$2,080 on Paraguay | Wallet win rate: 89%