Part of: Germany vs. Curaçao - More Markets

Spread: Germany (-2.5)

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $32,319.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Linked underdog spread cluster

High-conviction coordinated Curaçao spread buying from 5 wallets, including 4 linked wallets and a profitable 75% bettor, with broad same-event positioning.

  • Five wallets put $8.7K on the same side, with four wallets sharing a funder tied to $61K in total activity.
  • One buyer wins 75% of resolved bets and is up $9.6K lifetime, making this more than just random flow.
  • The group is also active across 18 markets in the same event, suggesting a broader World Cup thesis.

$8,680 on Curaçao

Sharp cluster backing underdog spread

Strong one-sided cluster on Curaçao includes multiple profitable high-win-rate wallets and moved the spread price sharply despite a liquid market.

  • Six wallets put $12.5K on Curaçao, pushing that side up about 16 percentage points.
  • One bettor wins 92% of resolved bets and is up $173.6K lifetime.
  • Another large bettor in the cluster is up $1.53M lifetime and added twice to Curaçao.

$12,511 on Curaçao

92% winner fading Germany

A highly profitable 92% win-rate sports trader is exiting Germany after a sharp price drop, making the equivalent copy trade Curaçao at 48¢.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $173k lifetime.
  • They are a serial sports trader across 627 events, with over $1.38M total wagered.
  • Selling Germany after a 29-point drop signals caution on the favorite covering the spread.

$1,100 on Curaçao | Wallet win rate: 90%

New profitable whale repeats

A 3-day-old repeat large bettor with positive early P&L is making another $3.4k Germany spread buy, suggesting fresh conviction despite limited history.

  • This 3-day-old wallet has already been flagged 3 times for large bets and is up $2.4k early.
  • They put $3.4k on Germany -2.5 at 72¢, adding another meaningful position quickly.
  • The market is liquid, so the signal is mainly the wallet’s repeat size and early profitability.

$3,444 on Germany | Wallet win rate: 60%

17-wallet event cluster

Strong linked-wallet and cross-market event positioning from a highly profitable wallet now buying Curaçao after closing a Germany spread position.

  • 17 linked wallets share a funder and are active on this event, with $314k across 11 related markets.
  • This wallet is up $1.54M over 78k resolved trades, despite betting huge volume.
  • They closed a Germany position and bought Curaçao at 30¢, suggesting a shift against Germany covering the spread.

$3,813 on Curaçao | Wallet win rate: 55%

Elite sports bettor buying favorite

A highly proven sports bettor with an 86% win rate and $427k lifetime profit is buying Germany to cover despite only modest market movement.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $427k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 162 events, suggesting a repeatable sports-market edge.
  • Entry at 70¢ implies they still see value in Germany covering by 3+ goals.

$1,400 on Germany | Wallet win rate: 84%

17-wallet event cluster

Strong linked-wallet and cross-market event positioning from a highly profitable wallet now buying Curaçao after closing a Germany spread position.

  • 17 linked wallets share a funder and are active on this event, with $314k across 11 related markets.
  • This wallet is up $1.54M over 78k resolved trades, despite betting huge volume.
  • They closed a Germany position and bought Curaçao at 30¢, suggesting a shift against Germany covering the spread.

$1,371 on Curaçao | Wallet win rate: 55%

Top Holders

  1. 0x2a69...d2f7 Outcome 52633545, $30,836 (70% win rate)
  2. 0xc152...3e66 Outcome 52633545, $7,922 (100% win rate)
  3. 0xedf9...5c67 Outcome 52633545, $2,981 (76% win rate)
  4. 0xf021...e900 Outcome 52633545, $2,500 (66% win rate)
  5. 0x3c11...9b33 Outcome 52633545, $2,000 (39% win rate)
  6. 0xd1ed...d7cb Outcome 52633545, $1,878 (63% win rate)
  7. 0x52d9...fb1a Outcome 52633545, $1,573 (70% win rate)
  8. 0xcf73...0215 Outcome 52633545, $1,492 (58% win rate)
  9. 0x224f...514a Outcome 52633545, $1,082 (84% win rate)
  10. 0xb9b4...3111 Outcome 52633545, $1,050

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Spread: Germany (-2.5)

ResolvedGermany vs. Curaçao - More Markets$32,319 tracked7 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 14 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Germany" if Germany win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Curaçao". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Notable Trades

Spread: Germany (-2.5)

88d ago

$8,680 on Curaçao at 42¢

Spread: Germany (-2.5)

88d ago

$12,511 on Curaçao at 41¢

Spread: Germany (-2.5)

88d ago

$1,100 on Curaçao at 48¢

Spread: Germany (-2.5)

89d ago

$3,444 on Germany at 72¢

Spread: Germany (-2.5)

89d ago

$3,813 on Curaçao at 30¢

Spread: Germany (-2.5)

89d ago

$1,400 on Germany at 70¢

Spread: Germany (-2.5)

89d ago

$1,371 on Curaçao at 30¢

Related Theses