Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)
This Polymarket asks whether Manchester City FC will beat Southampton FC by 2 or more goals in their FA Cup match on April 25. The market resolves to Manchester City if they win by at least two; otherwise, it resolves to Southampton. It settles based on the official final score published by the FA, with postponements keeping the market open and full cancellations resolving 50-50.
In the upcoming FA Cup game, scheduled for April 25 at 10:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Manchester City FC" if Manchester City FC win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Southampton FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on thefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,970.
Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FA Cup
Notable Trades
Repeat new-wallet whale
A 4-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets across markets and is now putting another $2.1k into Southampton +1.5 at 38¢, suggesting sustained conviction from an aggressive new bettor.
- This 4-day-old wallet has already triggered 82 large-bet alerts totaling about $191k
- They just bought Southampton FC twice at 38¢, a clear fresh bet that Manchester City will not win by 2+ goals
- The market is liquid and near 60/40, so this looks like deliberate conviction rather than random thin-market noise
$2,066 on Southampton FC | Wallet win rate: 100%
New whale hammering underdogs
A 4-day-old wallet has already made 80 large flagged bets totaling about $189k, and it just took the underdog side in a very low-volume spread market.
- This 4-day-old wallet has already triggered 80 large-bet alerts totaling about $189k
- It bought Southampton at 38¢ in a market with only $452 of 24h volume, so this $1.9k trade is unusually aggressive for the market
- The bet is on the contrarian underdog side of a spread market, suggesting clear conviction rather than routine flow
$1,904 on Southampton FC | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x50e4...1ced — Manchester City FC, $26,893 (53% win rate)
- 0x9495...9a27 — Southampton FC, $24,902 (100% win rate)
- 0x204f...5e14 — Southampton FC, $2,843 (55% win rate)
- 0xd81f...6b75 — Manchester City FC, $1,829 (47% win rate)
- 0x7ea5...de7b — Southampton FC, $1,496 (68% win rate)
- 0x95b7...d633 — Manchester City FC, $600
- 0xd4aa...d40c — Southampton FC, $332
- 0xbe7e...6d00 — Manchester City FC, $247 (40% win rate)
- 0x881e...70f8 — Manchester City FC, $125
- 0x160b...4296 — Manchester City FC, $107 (60% win rate)
