Part of: Mexico vs. South Africa - More Markets

Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $71,148.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Coordinated South Africa steam

High-scoring coordinated South Africa flow with a 66x volume spike, major price move against Mexico, and several historically profitable high-volume wallets on the same side.

  • Five wallets put $37.6k on South Africa, including a $26k+ buyer up $2.1M lifetime.
  • The market saw a 66x volume spike while Mexico’s spread price dropped about 22 points.
  • South Africa is now 57¢, close to the cluster’s average entry, so the copy price has not run far past the main flow.

$37,640 on South Africa

Profitable bettors backing Mexico

Profitable high-volume sports wallets are buying Mexico amid a major volume spike and strong price momentum, though there is also notable opposing flow.

  • Four wallets bought $18.5K of Mexico, including one bettor up $739K lifetime with a 63% record.
  • Mexico has surged 24.5 points today while market volume is running 59x above normal.
  • Two high-volume bettors in this cluster are up over $5.8M combined lifetime.

$18,537 on Mexico

70% serial sports bettor

Highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is backing South Africa +2.5 amid a major pre-event volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 70% of 3,321 resolved bets and is up $2.65M lifetime.
  • They are active across 3 markets in this same game with $15.1K positioned, suggesting a broader match thesis.
  • Market volume is running 125x above its historical average, and South Africa moved from 73¢ to 76¢ after the entry.

$1,900 on South Africa | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable 4-wallet sports cluster

High-scoring cluster of four wallets, including large profitable serial sports traders, is buying South Africa against the Mexico -2.5 spread amid an 85x pre-event volume spike.

  • Four wallets bought $12K of South Africa on the spread, all in the same direction.
  • Two major bettors in the cluster are strongly profitable, including one up $2.65M with a 70% hit rate.
  • Market volume spiked 85x before the match, suggesting a wave of positioning on South Africa +2.5.

$12,015 on South Africa

87% winner buying underdog spread

Sharp sports bettor with an 87% win rate and $659k lifetime profit bought Mexico -2.5 at 19¢.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $659k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market sports trader, active across 180 events with strong results.
  • Entry at 19¢ implies they see Mexico -2.5 as a high-upside mispricing.

$1,055 on Mexico | Wallet win rate: 84%

Top Holders

  1. 0x2b3f...3446 Outcome 10036548, $66,686 (64% win rate)
  2. 0xfe78...0319 Outcome 10036548, $51,317 (63% win rate)
  3. 0x86e9...4cdf Outcome 10036548, $5,684 (92% win rate)
  4. 0xb10b...0b04 Outcome 10036548, $5,555 (84% win rate)
  5. 0x8edd...74d2 Outcome 10036548, $5,204 (73% win rate)
  6. 0x160b...4296 Outcome 10036548, $5,195 (78% win rate)
  7. 0x06a9...1a49 Outcome 10036548, $2,770 (68% win rate)
  8. 0x3daf...19eb Outcome 10036548, $1,884
  9. 0x815f...1eef Outcome 10036548, $1,615 (88% win rate)
  10. 0xc9b7...7984 Outcome 10036548, $1,159 (52% win rate)

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Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

ResolvedMexico vs. South Africa - More Markets$71,148 tracked5 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 11 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Mexico" if Mexico win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "South Africa". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Notable Trades

Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

47d ago

$37,640 on South Africa at 57¢

Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

47d ago

$18,537 on Mexico at 46¢

Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

47d ago

$1,900 on South Africa at 73¢

Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

47d ago

$12,015 on South Africa at 75¢

Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

47d ago

$1,055 on Mexico at 19¢

Related Theses