Part of: Mexico vs. Ecuador - More Markets

Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $74,642.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Serial sports bettor hit spread

Serial cross-market sports bettor with a 65% long-run record bought Ecuador before the spread market moved to 100%.

  • This bettor has won 65% of 927 resolved bets and is up $19.4K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 101 events, suggesting a repeat sports-market process rather than a one-off bet.
  • Ecuador moved from their 88¢ entry to 100¢, confirming the market quickly agreed with the position.

$1,118 on Ecuador | Wallet win rate: 65%

One-sided pre-game soccer flow

Surface as coordinated pre-game flow: multiple wallets bought Mexico -2.5 into a major volume spike and 30-point daily move, though this specific wallet has poor long-term results.

  • Five wallets bought Mexico -2.5 in the same window, totaling about $11.5k.
  • Market activity spiked nearly 94x above its historical average, with Mexico up 30 points over the past day.
  • Entry at 38¢ implies a roughly 2.6x payout if Mexico wins by 3+ goals.

$11,732 on Mexico | Wallet win rate: 46%

5-wallet Mexico surge

High composite alert driven by coordinated Mexico buying across 5 wallets, repeated volume spikes, and strong 1-day price momentum, despite the highlighted wallet lacking a strong profit record.

  • Five wallets are all buying Mexico in the same direction, totaling about $11.5K.
  • Market volume spiked more than 12x in multiple scans while Mexico’s price is up 30 points today.
  • This is a momentum-and-flow signal, not a proven sharp-wallet signal; the main wallet has a large but unprofitable history.

$11,110 on Mexico | Wallet win rate: 53%

$51K one-sided cluster

A $50.7k three-wallet one-sided buy cluster hit Ecuador alongside a 13x pre-event volume spike and major price momentum, though the wallets do not show strong historical profitability.

  • Three wallets bought $50.7k of the same side in a tight window.
  • Volume is running 13x above normal, with the market moving sharply over the past day.
  • This is a flow-and-momentum signal rather than a proven sharp-wallet bet.

$50,682 on Ecuador

Top Holders

  1. 0x0cc0...5765 Outcome 90343297, $50,096 (74% win rate)
  2. 0x06f2...1269 Outcome 90343297, $31,605 (54% win rate)
  3. 0xd0e1...99db Outcome 90343297, $13,068 (86% win rate)
  4. 0xae00...f8f4 Outcome 90343297, $10,000 (85% win rate)
  5. 0x57ef...044a Outcome 90343297, $10,000 (89% win rate)
  6. 0xf93f...f94b Outcome 90343297, $9,274 (72% win rate)
  7. 0xd1ed...d7cb Outcome 90343297, $7,760 (55% win rate)
  8. 0x82ba...afea Outcome 90343297, $2,818 (85% win rate)
  9. 0x0484...e0ee Outcome 90343297, $2,600 (58% win rate)
  10. 0xc3db...0f98 Outcome 90343297, $2,365 (63% win rate)

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Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

ResolvedMexico vs. Ecuador - More Markets$74,642 tracked4 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 30 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Mexico" if Mexico win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ecuador". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Notable Trades

Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

1d ago

$1,118 on Ecuador at 88¢

Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

1d ago

$11,732 on Mexico at 38¢

Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

1d ago

$11,110 on Mexico at 35¢

Spread: Mexico (-2.5)

1d ago

$50,682 on Ecuador at 64¢

Related Theses