Part of: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins

Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins, scheduled for August 11 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game by 3 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,191.

Categories: Sports, Games, MLB, baseball

Notable Trades

Paired near-arbitrage entry

The wallet lacks a strong directional edge, but its two opposing purchases totaled 95¢ in a thin market, creating a notable near-arbitrage position.

  • The trader bought both outcomes for a combined 95¢, implying roughly a 5% gross payout if held to resolution.
  • The $2,191 position was more than 140% of the market’s prior 24-hour volume, making it a significant trade in a thin market.
  • This wallet has made over $1.4M historically, though its 61% win rate does not establish a clear directional edge here.

$2,191 on Miami Marlins | Wallet win rate: 65%

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Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins$2,191 tracked1 signalSportsGamesMLBbaseball
Miami Marlins
0¢
Pittsburgh Pirates
100¢

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins, scheduled for August 11 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game by 3 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

PIT
0
58-63
Final
MIA
2
61-59
PIT -111MIA +103O/U 7Polymarket: 0¢
Venue
loanDepot park, Miami
Attendance
9,366

Notable Trades

Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)

2026-08-12 00:03 UTC

$2,191 on Miami Marlins at 39¢

Related Theses