Part of: Tunisia vs. Netherlands - More Markets
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $35,010.
Categories: Games, Soccer, Sports, FIFA World Cup
Notable Trades
Profitable serial sports bettor
Coordinated Tunisia-side flow is backed by a profitable serial cross-market trader, though one leg appears to be profit-taking from a prior Netherlands position.
- One bettor in the cluster has won 65% of 1,036 resolved bets and is up about $449K lifetime.
- Three wallets put $8.7K on Tunisia covering the +3.5 spread, with entries around 55¢–62¢.
- This same trader has bet across 92 events and 116 markets, suggesting a repeatable sports-market strategy.
$8,713 on Tunisia
Profitable bettor in split flow
High-volume pre-match move with a profitable 88% bettor buying Netherlands, though there is notable larger linked money on the other side.
- A bettor who wins 88% of resolved bets and is up $91k bought Netherlands around 59–60¢.
- Netherlands saw a sharp 34-point price move during a 40x volume spike before the match.
- There is conflicting flow: 5 linked wallets put $34k on Tunisia, so this is a high-signal but contested market.
$10,320 on Netherlands
Profitable cross-market cluster
Three wallets bought Tunisia +3.5 in the same window, backed by broad cross-market positioning and one profitable serial event trader, though the largest buyer has weak lifetime P&L.
- Three wallets bought $10.8k of Tunisia, with entries around 51¢ before the market moved to 60¢.
- One wallet in the cluster wins 65% of resolved bets and is up about $449k lifetime.
- The same event has seen $62.8k across 8 related markets, suggesting a broader match thesis.
$10,810 on Tunisia
89% winner backing favorite spread
A highly profitable sports bettor with an 89% resolved win rate and $1.43M lifetime profit bought Netherlands -3.5 at 31¢.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $1.43M lifetime.
- They have bet across 259 events with the same strong track record, making the wallet itself the signal.
- Entry at 31¢ implies a roughly 3.2x payout if Netherlands win by 4 or more.
$3,166 on Netherlands | Wallet win rate: 88%
81% sports bettor
A high-win-rate sports bettor with 26 wins in 32 resolved positions bought Netherlands -3.5 at 31¢, though lifetime P&L is slightly negative.
- This bettor has won 81% of resolved positions, going 26 for 32 so far.
- Their wins have come at an average 40¢ entry, making this 31¢ spread bet a similar plus-money setup.
- They put $2,000 on Netherlands to win by 4+ goals in a liquid World Cup market.
$2,000 on Netherlands | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0x032e...2a9e — Outcome 69624555, $32,874 (71% win rate)
- 0x94d7...bef5 — Outcome 69624555, $30,028 (88% win rate)
- 0xc41d...74fd — Outcome 69624555, $15,600 (97% win rate)
- 0xcc6e...fa6f — Outcome 69624555, $15,015 (66% win rate)
- 0xe987...f0e1 — Outcome 69624555, $10,000 (99% win rate)
- 0x13d0...593d — Outcome 69624555, $6,454 (83% win rate)
- 0xddc3...029c — Outcome 69624555, $5,765 (92% win rate)
- 0x56f4...9ec5 — Outcome 69624555, $4,999 (65% win rate)
- 0x160b...4296 — Outcome 69624555, $4,540 (76% win rate)
- 0xe512...43d1 — Outcome 69624555, $3,846
Related Theses
Paraguay advances despite Germany rout
Covers 4 related markets
Netherlands advance in goalfest
Covers 4 related markets
Cavaliers beat the Knicks
Covers 1 related market
Timberwolves beat Spurs
Covers 1 related market
Knicks beat the Cavaliers
Covers 1 related market
DR Congo fails to win
Covers 1 related market
