What does Phoenix Mercury -4.5 mean in this prediction market?

Phoenix Mercury -4.5 means the Mercury must win by at least 5 points for the market to resolve to “Phoenix Mercury.” If they win by 4 or fewer, lose, or the game is tied, the market resolves to “Chicago Sky.”

When does the Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after the WNBA game on May 15 at 10:00 PM ET, with the listed resolution time on May 16, 2026 at 02:00 UTC.

What happens if the Mercury vs Sky game is postponed or canceled?

If the game is postponed, the market remains open until the game is completed. If it is canceled entirely with no make-up game, the market resolves 50-50.

How much smart money is tracked on this Mercury -4.5 market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $2,554 in smart money on this market, including 1 smart money signal tied to a profitable serial sports bettor.

Is this the same as betting on the Phoenix Mercury to win?

No. This is a spread market, not a moneyline market. Phoenix must win by 5 or more points; simply winning the game by 1 to 4 points would still resolve the market to “Chicago Sky.”

Part of: Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury

Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)

This Polymarket spread market covers whether the Phoenix Mercury will beat the Chicago Sky by 5 or more points in their WNBA game scheduled for May 15 at 10:00 PM ET. If Phoenix wins by 5+, the market resolves to “Phoenix Mercury”; if Chicago covers +4.5 or the game is tied, it resolves to “Chicago Sky.” PolySpotter is tracking $2,554 in smart money and 1 recent smart money signal for this market, with resolution expected after the game on May 16, 2026 UTC.

In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for May 15 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Phoenix Mercury" if the Phoenix Mercury win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chicago Sky". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Chicago Sky". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,554.

Categories: Sports, Games, WNBA

Notable Trades

Profitable serial sports bettor

A profitable serial cross-market sports bettor with 406 resolved bets is taking a large Chicago Sky spread position that represents over half of the market's 24h volume.

This bettor has a long track record: 62% wins across 406 resolved bets and $68.6k in profit.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 125 events with $267k in flagged related-market volume.
This $2.6k Chicago Sky bet is large for the market, equal to 53% of the past day’s volume.

$2,554 on Chicago Sky | Wallet win rate: 62%