Part of: SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12?
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12?
This Polymarket market asks whether SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, will close higher or lower on May 12, 2026 compared with its most recent prior trading day close. It resolves after the May 12 close, using the official SPY closing price; PolySpotter is tracking $2,491 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including recent buying-reversal alerts.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on May 12, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on May 12, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,491.
Categories: Finance, Equities, Stocks, Daily, Up or Down, Daily-Close, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Equity Daily Pyth, SPY, S&P 500, Rewards Automation 1000, 4.5, 100
Notable Trades
80% winner buying reversal
Sharp serial cross-market wallet with 80% win rate and +$101.7k lifetime P&L is effectively buying SPY Up at 12¢.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up $101.7k lifetime.
- They are effectively buying SPY Up at 12¢ after the market moved sharply toward Down.
- This wallet has traded across 49 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
$1,018 on Up | Wallet win rate: 80%
80% winner buying reversal
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is effectively buying SPY Up at 11¢ against a heavily one-sided Down market.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $101.7K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying SPY Up at 11¢ after the market moved sharply toward Down.
- This wallet has traded across 48 events and 55 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
$1,473 on Up | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Down, $2,000 (47% win rate)
- 0xb0d9...a88d — Down, $1,890
- 0x91d7...0dfc — Up, $1,100 (100% win rate)
- 0xa540...0b43 — Up, $1,048 (40% win rate)
- 0xdefe...17f4 — Down, $964 (62% win rate)
- 0xba05...4e58 — Down, $892
- 0xe157...51eb — Up, $833
- 0x9e8f...1154 — Up, $653
- 0x7ce3...a6bf — Up, $640
- 0xa0a8...e606 — Down, $585
Related Theses
Oviedo Getafe ends level
Covers 1 related market
