Part of: UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)

UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $173,511.

Categories: Sports, UFC, Games

Notable Trades

Serial sharp backing Álvarez

A highly experienced bettor with an 87% win rate and $54.7K profit made a large Joel Álvarez position during an extreme volume spike, though the trade is now materially underwater.

  • This bettor has won 87% of 667 resolved trades and is up $54,653 lifetime.
  • They added roughly $3,300 to Joel Álvarez at 64¢ amid a 1,044x volume spike, showing strong conviction.
  • The position now appears badly out of favor at the reported 28% odds, making this a high-risk contrarian signal rather than a straightforward copy.

$3,307 on Joel Álvarez | Wallet win rate: 87%

97% win-rate serial bettor

A highly proven serial bettor with a 97% win rate made a concentrated Joel Álvarez purchase, though the market has since moved sharply against the position.

  • This bettor has won 281 of 291 resolved trades, with nearly $1.0M in realized profit and a reported 19-point edge over implied odds.
  • They bought $2,625 of Joel Álvarez at 75¢, showing strong initial conviction in a relatively thin $2,989-liquidity market.
  • Joel Álvarez is now priced near 54¢ after a 20.5% daily market move, so the position is currently underwater and warrants caution despite the bettor’s record.

$2,625 on Joel Álvarez | Wallet win rate: 96%

Sharp bettor scaling into Joel Álvarez

A highly experienced, profitable bettor with a 76% win rate and substantial edge added $85,871 to Joel Álvarez despite already holding a large position.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 854 resolved trades, with a $1.04 million lifetime profit and meaningful edge over the odds paid.
  • They added $85,871 to Joel Álvarez while already holding a $112,988 position, showing strong one-sided conviction.
  • The trade represented 56% of 24-hour market volume, while six trades drove an extraordinary 2,939× volume spike.

$85,871 on Joel Álvarez | Wallet win rate: 79%

Sharp bettor adds to Joel Álvarez

A proven sharp bettor with a 91% win rate and substantial existing Joel Álvarez position added another $4.85k amid an extreme volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 91% of 45 resolved positions and is up $23,069.
  • They added $4,851 to an existing Joel Álvarez position at 74¢, showing continued conviction.
  • The market saw an 8,512× historical volume spike, although Joel is already priced as a 76% favorite.

$4,851 on Joel Álvarez | Wallet win rate: 92%

Sharp bettor leads Joel Álvarez cluster

Three wallets added $62,779 to Joel Álvarez, including a highly profitable 91% winner, amid a 704x historical volume spike.

  • A bettor who wins 91% of trades is adding to Joel Álvarez at 74¢, with $23,069 in recorded profit.
  • Three wallets collectively added $62,779 to Joel Álvarez during a market volume spike over 700 times its historical average.
  • All three wallets are scaling existing Joel Álvarez positions, signaling increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.

$62,779 on Joel Álvarez

Sharp bettor scaling into Joel Álvarez

A highly profitable sharp bettor with a 92% win rate added $14,078 to Joel Álvarez in a very thin market, signaling strong conviction.

  • This bettor wins 92% of trades, with a $62,424 lifetime profit and a 31-point edge over implied odds.
  • They added $14,078 to Joel Álvarez at 70¢, more than 12 times the market’s 24-hour volume.
  • The existing position was already $20,126, so this is a meaningful increase in conviction rather than a new speculative entry.

$14,078 on Joel Álvarez | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

  1. 0x10a6...4d8b Outcome 17864751, $143,185 (79% win rate)
  2. 0xfe78...0319 Outcome 17864751, $76,592 (65% win rate)
  3. 0x9f2f...2ca8 Outcome 17864751, $58,510 (52% win rate)
  4. 0x533c...2658 Outcome 17864751, $50,110 (70% win rate)
  5. 0xe954...1ef1 Outcome 17864751, $25,669 (92% win rate)
  6. 0x2256...0386 Outcome 17864751, $20,126 (92% win rate)
  7. 0x224f...514a Outcome 17864751, $8,100 (84% win rate)
  8. 0xade2...e86d Outcome 17864751, $5,139 (87% win rate)
  9. 0x4889...e2d8 Outcome 17864751, $3,759 (75% win rate)
  10. 0x8bfe...2d74 Outcome 17864751, $3,500 (96% win rate)

Related Theses

England Ghana ends 1-1

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Argentina-Austria stays low scoring

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Tunisia keeps Japan close

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Iran New Zealand odds mispriced

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Argentina Algeria stays low-scoring

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Belgium-Senegal ends with four goals

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Scotland-Brazil stays tight and low

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Bosnia-Qatar stays low scoring

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Early goal, exactly two total

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Bosnia keeps low-scoring match close

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UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)

ResolvedUFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)$173,511 tracked6 signalsSportsUFCGames

This market will resolve to "Chidi Njokuani" if Chidi Njokuani is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joel Álvarez at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Joel Álvarez" if Joel Álvarez is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Price History — “Joel Álvarez
76¢
72¢
67¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)

9d ago

$3,307 on Joel Álvarez at 64¢

UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)

9d ago

$2,625 on Joel Álvarez at 75¢

UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)

9d ago

$85,871 on Joel Álvarez at 76¢

UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)

9d ago

$4,851 on Joel Álvarez at 74¢

UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)

9d ago

$62,779 on Joel Álvarez at 74¢

UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)

14d ago

$14,078 on Joel Álvarez at 70¢

Related Theses

England Ghana ends 1-1
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 3 related markets
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5Spread: England (-1.5)
Argentina-Austria stays low scoring
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Hal…
Tunisia keeps Japan close
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5
Iran New Zealand odds mispriced
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 3 related markets
Will New Zealand win on 2026-0…Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15…Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand e…
Argentina Algeria stays low-scoring
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5
Belgium-Senegal ends with four goals
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5Belgium vs. Senegal: 1st Half …
Scotland-Brazil stays tight and low
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 6 related markets
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5Spread: Brazil (-1.5)
Bosnia-Qatar stays low scoring
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qat…Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qat…Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: …
Early goal, exactly two total
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2…Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st H…Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0…
Bosnia keeps low-scoring match close
Wallet_0x10a6f trades 4 related markets
United States vs. Bosnia and H…Spread: United States (-1.5)United States vs. Bosnia and H…