UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Francis Marshall (Lightweight, Prelims)

This Polymarket tracks who will officially win the UFC Fight Night prelim lightweight bout between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall. The market resolves to the fighter declared the winner, and settles 50-50 if the bout ends in a draw, no contest, is canceled, or is postponed beyond May 9, 2026. It is scheduled to resolve after UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal on April 26, 2026 UTC.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,954.

Categories: UFC, Games, Sports

Notable Trades

14-wallet funded cluster

A 14-wallet funded cluster is piling into the same UFC underdog despite weak wallet-level results, making this coordinated flow worth watching even though the specific entry has moved against them.

  • 14 wallets funded by the same address have been active together, which points to a coordinated thesis rather than a random single bet
  • This wallet bought Lucas Brennan at 15¢ while the market now sits at 6¢, showing aggressive underdog conviction
  • Market activity is surging with volume running 61x normal, so there is real money moving around this fight

$1,462 on Lucas Brennan | Wallet win rate: 10%

5-wallet UFC buy cluster

A 5-wallet funded cluster poured $38.5k into Francis Marshall within minutes, pushing into a relatively thin UFC market and lifting the price from about 80¢ to 88¢.

  • Five wallets tied to the same funding source bought $38.5k of Francis Marshall in a few minutes.
  • Their entries around 79-80¢ have already moved to 88¢, showing immediate follow-through.
  • This funder has appeared across 14 wallets, and the market saw an unusually large volume surge before the fight.

$38,492 on Francis Marshall

Top Holders

  1. 0x3e2f...aaf8 Outcome 61007736, $32,400 (34% win rate)
  2. 0x9f2f...2ca8 Outcome 61007736, $25,000 (51% win rate)
  3. 0xf68a...5b1b Outcome 60951351, $18,621 (51% win rate)
  4. 0x5aa9...febe Outcome 60951351, $12,663
  5. 0x6dd6...f5f4 Outcome 60951351, $5,556 (72% win rate)
  6. 0xa710...23c4 Outcome 61007736, $4,052 (53% win rate)
  7. 0x26cf...c612 Outcome 61007736, $3,384 (60% win rate)
  8. 0x0d96...7c16 Outcome 61007736, $2,354 (100% win rate)
  9. 0x4889...e2d8 Outcome 60951351, $1,989 (71% win rate)
  10. 0xa38a...821d Outcome 60951351, $1,926 (55% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Francis Marshall (Lightweight, Prelims)

3h$39,954 tracked2 signalsUFCGamesSports

This market will resolve to "Lucas Brennan" if Lucas Brennan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Francis Marshall" if Francis Marshall is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Notable Trades

UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Francis Marshall (Lightweight, Prelims)

2h ago

$1,462 on Lucas Brennan at 15¢

UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Francis Marshall (Lightweight, Prelims)

2h ago

$38,492 on Francis Marshall at 80¢

Related Theses