Part of: United States vs. Paraguay - More Markets

United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between United States and Paraguay, scheduled for June 12 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if United States and Paraguay combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $119,271.

Categories: Soccer, FIFA World Cup, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

Profitable serial sports sharp

Sharp profitable sports bettor with a 77% long-run win rate is buying Under alongside one-sided flow and a major pre-event volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved bets and is up $634K lifetime across 524 positions.
  • Four wallets are all buying Under, totaling $25.7K on the same side.
  • Market volume spiked 103x before the game, and this wallet is also active across 3 related markets.

$11,149 on Under | Wallet win rate: 77%

One-sided Under flow

High-composite alert driven by coordinated Under buying, a 103x volume spike, and a very active cross-market trader despite the wallet’s negative lifetime P&L.

  • Four wallets bought the same side, totaling $25.7k on Under.
  • Volume is 103x above the market’s normal pace, and the Under side has seen a large recent move.
  • This bettor is highly active across events, with 748 resolved bets and a 65% win rate, though lifetime P&L is negative.

$5,115 on Under | Wallet win rate: 65%

Five-wallet Over surge

High composite alert driven by five wallets buying Over together, a major pre-event volume spike, and a sharp 32-point move toward Over.

  • Five wallets bought the same side, putting $9.1K into Over during the scan window.
  • Market activity spiked 84x above normal, and Over has already moved up 32 percentage points in the past day.
  • This wallet is only 6 days old and is joining the one-sided flow at 40¢.

$1,367 on Over | Wallet win rate: 100%

Linked cluster buying Over

Strong one-sided cluster buying Over, backed by linked wallets, a profitable repeat new wallet, and a large pre-game volume/price surge.

  • Five wallets put $12.6k on Over, including three wallets funded by the same source.
  • A repeat new wallet in the cluster is already up $16.7k and has been flagged 14 times for large bets.
  • Market volume spiked 49x and Over has moved up 31 percentage points in the past day.

$12,630 on Over

Profitable serial event bettor

Surface because a highly profitable serial sports/event trader with $1.6M lifetime profit is buying Under during a major pre-game volume spike.

  • This bettor has won 62% of 465 resolved trades and is up about $1.6M lifetime.
  • They are a heavy repeat trader across 262 events with more than $3.5M in tracked cross-market bets.
  • The market is seeing a 49x pre-game volume spike, and this trade backs Under at 61¢ despite recent movement toward Over.

$3,323 on Under | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable wallets chasing Over

High-scoring soccer total alert with 4 wallets effectively buying Over into a 103x pre-event volume spike and a 32-point price move, supported by profitable event bettors despite some opposing flow.

  • Four wallets effectively bought Over for $7.1K as the price jumped 32 points in a day.
  • This market saw a 103x volume spike before the match, suggesting unusually strong pre-game positioning.
  • Two participating wallets have large positive records, including one up $61K and another up $203K lifetime.

$7,084 on Over

New profitable whale

A 4-day-old repeat whale with early profits bought $5k of Under, alongside a huge pre-event volume spike, though the price has since moved sharply against the entry.

  • This 4-day-old wallet has already placed $148k in flagged bets and is up $6.5k so far.
  • The bettor bought $5k of Under at 82¢, showing strong conviction in a low-scoring game.
  • Market volume spiked 196x above normal, suggesting a rush of money into this line.

$5,000 on Under | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable new whale on Under

A very new but already profitable wallet made a $10.2k Under bet, with repeat large-bet history and a major pre-event volume spike supporting the signal.

  • This 1-day-old wallet is already 4-for-4 on resolved bets and up $5.2k.
  • The bettor has now been flagged 12 times for large new-wallet bets, totaling about $50k.
  • They bought $10.2k of Under at 80¢, while the market now prices it closer to 60¢.

$10,177 on Under | Wallet win rate: 100%

Sharp cluster buying Under

Large one-sided Under flow from multiple profitable, high-volume sports bettors, including a 77% winner up $634k, amid a 189x pre-event volume spike.

  • A bettor who wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $634k joined the Under side with an $11k buy.
  • Five wallets put $63k on Under, roughly 10x the smaller opposing Over flow.
  • This market saw a 189x volume spike, and several Under entries at 60¢ are already trading around 68¢.

$63,424 on Under

Top Holders

  1. 0x3dfb...abaf Over, $89,520 (48% win rate)
  2. 0x204f...5e14 Under, $49,112 (54% win rate)
  3. 0x7a88...41cc Under, $42,222 (62% win rate)
  4. 0x8dcb...6d5b Over, $26,151
  5. 0xf0f7...0c5a Under, $18,582 (77% win rate)
  6. 0x224a...a3d5 Under, $17,517 (65% win rate)
  7. 0xe5f0...dc1d Over, $14,229 (23% win rate)
  8. 0xc6a0...2378 Under, $12,732 (100% win rate)
  9. 0x002f...92f3 Under, $9,685 (85% win rate)
  10. 0x0346...52a5 Under, $7,208 (53% win rate)

Related Theses

US-Paraguay stays low scoring

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Concepción-Calera stays under 2.5

Covers 1 related market

United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5

ResolvedUnited States vs. Paraguay - More Markets$119,271 tracked9 signalsSoccerFIFA World CupSportsGames
Over
33¢
Under
68¢

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between United States and Paraguay, scheduled for June 12 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if United States and Paraguay combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Paraguay
PAR
0
World Cup
Live
66'
USA
USA
3
Polymarket: 33¢
Venue
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Price History — “Under
94¢
77¢
59¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5

1h ago

$11,149 on Under at 60¢

60¢68¢8¢

United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5

1h ago

$5,115 on Under at 60¢

60¢68¢8¢

United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5

1h ago

$1,367 on Over at 40¢

40¢33¢7¢

United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5

1h ago

$12,630 on Over at 40¢

40¢33¢7¢

United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5

1h ago

$3,323 on Under at 61¢

61¢68¢7¢

United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5

1h ago

$7,084 on Over at 41¢

41¢33¢8¢

United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5

1h ago

$5,000 on Under at 82¢

82¢68¢14¢

United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5

2h ago

$10,177 on Under at 80¢

80¢68¢12¢

United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5

1h ago

$63,424 on Under at 65¢

65¢68¢3¢

Related Theses